Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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923 FXUS64 KBRO 150826 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The mid-level ridge continues to stay in place over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, as such above normal temperatures with very low chances in rain are expected to last through the short term forecast period. With the atmosphere aloft being dry still, the environment will continue to be unfavorable for the development for showers and thunderstorms to develop. However, it is still possible that the seabreeze could kick up a few isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon today and tomorrow. As for the temperatures, the highs for today and tomorrow are expected to be in the range of upper 90s for most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, while parts of Starr, Zapata, and Jim Hogg could reach into the triple digits. Meanwhile the heat indices are expected to be in the range of 105 to 110 degrees for today and tomorrow. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be mostly in the 70s with a few places in the Lower Rio Grande Valley reaching into the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 This portion of the total forecast is highly dependent on the future development and movement of a tropical system that may develop in the Bay of Campeche late Tuesday. At a minimum, deep tropical moisture, featuring precipitable water values between 2 and roughly 2.75 inches, will flux into the BRO CWFA from the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf of Mexico. This will result in a steadily-increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms, with initially isolated to scattered convection over the eastern portion of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley gradually transitioning to scattered to numerous activity across the whole of the area by the end of the long term period. With the exception of the northern halves of Brooks County, Jim Hogg County, and Zapata County, where no drought exists, the latest drought map indicates Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions over the remainder of the inland portion of the BRO CWFA. Aforementioned substantial rains, if they materialize, will have the possibility of ending any and all drought within the region by the time of their conclusion. Temperature-wise, above normal daytime highs, not surprisingly, will be cooled to slightly below normal levels courtesy of increased cloud cover and the significant chances for showers and thunderstorms. Heat indices may result in a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT Monday through Friday, with a HEAT ADVISORY not expected to be needed for that time frame. Additionally, with elevated seas anticipated along the Lower Texas Coast (please see the MARINE section below), an elevated risk of rip currents (MODERATE or HIGH), COASTAL FLOOD products (ADVISORY or WARNING), and HIGH SURF products (ADVISORY or WARNING) are likely to be needed at the local beaches, possibly commencing on Monday night or Tuesday. Finally, some model guidance suggests that a more organized tropical system will be in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula late June 21st or early June 22nd, traversing across the Gulf of Mexico for a couple of days afterwards. Given the amount of time yet to pass, nothing definite is laid in stone, so will simply have to monitor this concern as the second week of June becomes the third. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected to hold through the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. Light easterly to southeasterly winds are likely to occur and bring in some low-level moisture that could help with the production of a few low-level clouds. Slight chance of rain is possible for tomorrow, but confidence was too low to include in this package. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Favorable conditions are expected to persist through Sunday, as a weak pressure gradient remains over the Lower Texas Coast. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas are expected with some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. (Sunday Night through Friday) This portion of the marine forecast remains highly dependent on the future development and movement of a tropical system that may develop in the Bay of Campeche late Tuesday. If model guidance is to believed, Small Craft Advisory conditions, at a minimum, are possible along the Lower Texas Coast beginning Monday night, especially for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore. Mariners are advised to monitor the Coastal Waters Forecast through the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 95 80 96 80 / 10 10 30 30 HARLINGEN 98 75 98 76 / 10 0 20 20 MCALLEN 99 79 100 79 / 10 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 77 100 78 / 0 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 83 88 82 / 10 10 40 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 80 93 79 / 10 10 30 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Katz-64 LONG TERM/UPPER AIR...Tomaselli-66