573
FXUS64 KBRO 022310 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
610 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Messages:

*Above normal high and low temperatures

The main message of the short term forecast period is that the
temperatures are going to remain above normal. The mid-level ridge
will continue to drive subsidence into Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley, which will lead to the middle and upper levels of the
atmosphere dry and stable. This atmospheric set up will keep the
rain away from the area for the short term forecast period.
Meanwhile the southeasterly winds will continue to bring in plenty
of low-level moisture that will make the air very humid. Also thanks
to an enhanced pressure gradient due to the interaction of high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and a thermal low over central
Mexico. While the winds are expected to be gusty through the period,
they should remain below Wind Advisory criteria.

As for the heat, the high temperatures for tomorrow are expected to
be in the range of upper 90s for the coastal regions, while the rest
of the region is in the triple digits. Thanks to the surface
southeasterly winds and the humidity, the air is going to feel
hotter outside with the heat indices in the range of 110 to 114 for
tomorrow. A Heat Advisory may not be needed for tomorrow as the
duration of larger heat indices seems to be very borderline at this
point, so that a Special Weather Statement would be sufficient. As
for the low temperatures, are expected to be in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The 500mb ridge of high pressure builds and works into West Texas
through next weekend, continuing to bake Deep South Texas through
the week, as a persistent and potent trough continues much cooler
weather across the Great Lakes and Northeast. The chance of rain
remains less than 10 percent through the long term, with only an
outside shot at a storm or two off the Sierra Madre into the brush
country Tuesday night or Wednesday night and some streamer
showers or storms offshore late week into the weekend.

Otherwise, expect heat to increase into Wednesday and persist
through the long term period. Breezy winds Tuesday drop off to
light or nearly calm by the end of the week and weekend as the
ridge of high pressure moves northwest. Overnight lows remain
generally in the 80s across the Rio Grande Valley, offering very
little recovery from conditions. Heat Advisories will be most
likely Tuesday and Wednesday, but may be needed Thursday as well.
Some drier air arriving late week into the weekend may help keep
most Heat Indices below 110.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Through 00z Tuesday....As of this update, VFR conditions were taking
place at the TAF sites under a SCT-BKN deck of strato-cu clouds
as depicted on satellite with unrestricted visibilities. VFR
conditions will continue through this evening. Tonight, there`s
the potential once again for MVFR ceilings to develop. During the
day on Monday, VFR conditions are expected to return.

Southeast winds 12-20 kts with gusts between 25-30 kts are
expected to prevail through the 00z TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Tonight through Monday Night...Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds
with moderate seas due to an enhanced pressure gradient. These
conditions will result in the need for Small Craft Exercise Caution.
A low end Small Craft Advisory cannot be ruled out either as the
strength of the winds is borderline at this point.

Tuesday through Sunday...Breezy southeasterly winds continue Small
Craft Advisory conditions Tuesday into Tuesday night across the
coastal waters, especially the nearshore Gulf and Laguna Madre. As
high pressure builds into West Texas through the week, expect
winds to gradually diminish, allowing seas to subside into late
week, with generally favorable marine conditions returning to the
lower Texas coast late week through next weekend. The chance of
streamer showers or storms across offshore waters gradually
increases each night Wednesday through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             83  95  82  95 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               80  98  80  98 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 82 100  82 100 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         81 103  80 103 /   0   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  87  83  88 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     81  94  82  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma