576
FXUS61 KBTV 150241
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1041 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A gorgeous weekend is in store with high temperatures in the 60s and
70s and low humidity. This will be short-lived as a long-duration
heat event moves in next week. Combined with high humidity, it will
cause heat indexes to approach 100 degrees. Warm overnight lows will
prevent any nighttime relief so heat related impacts will occur.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1041 PM EDT Friday...Main change with this update was to
adjust sky cover through the rest of the night, with skies going
clear from northwest to southeast where they currently are
overcast. Satellite imagery is suggesting that while post-
frontal shallow clouds may develop for a short time, the story
overnight will be clearing skies and advection of refreshing
air. Gusts are developing upstream near Montreal with the push
of drier air. A few piddly showers have developing over the last
hour or two across Vermont amidst some upper level divergence,
a moist 850-700 millibar level, and steeper lapse rates below.
Think this activity will fade away/exit to the east in the next
hour or so as the trough axis slides eastward.

Previous Discussion...A couple showers will develop later this
afternoon in southern Vermont and there is the chance of an
isolated severe storm. However, shower development has been
unimpressive this afternoon so far and the coverage will likely
be more limited than previously expected. The cold front
responsible for these showers is currently tracking its way
southeast and it should be out of the region this evening.
Cooler and drier weather will move in behind this front.
Therefore, lows should fall into the 40s and 50s tonight. Some
boundary layer winds will continue so any fog formation is
unlikely. Skies will clear out tonight and the day tomorrow
should be be basically cloudless. Highs will be in the 60s and
low 70s with low humidity. Winds will go calm tomorrow night and
this will lead to efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures
will fall into the 40s across the region but they should fall
into the mid to upper 30s in the coldest hollows of the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Enjoy the cooler weather
because a long- duration heat event will occur next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 PM EDT Friday...We`ve arranged a great day for all the
Fathers in our CWA Sunday. QPF forecasts are calling for no more
than trace in Northern New York. It`s possible we might see a stray
cloudburst, as shown with our widespread 10-15% pops. Temperatures
will be pleasant as well with valley locations reaching into the mid
to upper 70s. This should all provide for a wonderful weekend prior
to the heat building in starting Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 318 PM EDT Friday...A strong heat dome will build in next week,
bringing the most severe heat wave to hit Vermont and Northern New
York in a few years. Models are in good agreement that 500mb heights
will approach 600Dm allowing temperatures to soar into the mid-80s
by Monday and the mid-90s Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. At this
point, we can`t rule out reaching triple digits one of these days.
On the other hand, there are model solutions that show the
development of ridge runner thunderstorms developing which would of
course increase cloud cover and decrease temperatures. With that
said, even if our temperatures underperform the forecast we will
still experience a major heat event. Using our experimental Heat
Risk products, almost our entire CWA is reaching Major or Extreme
risk from Tuesday through Thursday. Please take time this weekend to
prepare for the threat by rescheduling outdoor activities, locating
cooling centers, ensuring you have a hydration plan.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through the
period. A secondary front behind the cold front that has already
passed through may lead to a brief increase in cloud cover and
winds in the 02Z to 04Z period, with a few 25 knot gusts
possible at BTV. Otherwise, few or no clouds is expected to be
largely the rule along with breezy north/northwest winds gusting
20 to 25 knots from about 09Z through the daytime hours on
Saturday. Winds will diminish towards sunset.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the
middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat
of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 18:
KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 92

June 19:
KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 93
KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 94
KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 92
KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 94

June 20:
KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 97
KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 93
KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 91
KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 92


Record Low Temperatures:

June 16:
KSLK: 32/2020 Forecast 34


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 19:
KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 69

June 20:
KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 70
KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 64

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Myskowski
CLIMATE...Team BTV