750
FXUS61 KBTV 270527
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
127 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system moves through tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing
rounds of rain, gusty winds, and a couple embedded thunderstorms.
There is a low risk of severe storms over northern New York. The
steady rain moves out Monday night but there will be a few chances
for showers mid and late week. Temperatures will generally be close
to seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 113 AM EDT Monday...Main focus of this update was to
increase winds and wind gusts over the next 24 hours. There may
be additional changes with the next forecast package. Main
concerns are gradient winds, downsloping on north/west slopes of
Greens and Adirondacks, as well as convective wind potential
in thunderstorms. Expected timing and rainfall amounts of this
next system remain the same at this time. Previous discussion
below:

A quick update to expand 20-30% pops
across southern/eastern VT from roughly 02z-07z, as radar is
showing some showers and thunderstorms developing over southern
NH/VT. These showers with some lightning/rumbles will continue
to move northward toward our region over the next couple
hours. Rest of fcst in good shape.

Monday continues to look active, with the potential for a few
strong to locally severe storms across the St Lawrence Valley
and Western Dacks region if clearing/instability can develop.
Latest 00z HRRR indicates temps warming into the upper 70s to
near 80F, which combined with dwpts in the mid 60s, creates CAPE
values near 1000 J/kg, enough given the wind profiles to
support some localized strong/svr storms. Low level wind fields
are very strong, so won`t need much to mix stronger winds to the
sfc and given the turning profiles and large cyclonic
hodographs, rotating storms are possible and will need to be
watched closely.

Previous discussion below. Skies are
currently mostly clear with only some daytime cumulus present
over the higher elevations. The cumulus will dissipate this
evening but clouds will quickly move in from the west out ahead
of a relatively strong storm system. There will be periods of
rain during the day on Monday and chances for a few embedded
thunderstorms, particularly over northern New York. Instability
will be low but there will be strong 0-6KM and low-level shear
so there is a low chance of severe thunderstorms, mostly over
the parts of St. Lawrence Valley. That is the area with the
strongest instability. A low-level jet will pass overhead during
the day Monday, bringing winds up to around 50KTs at 925 mb.
There will be some breaks in the rain when the strongest part of
the jet will be overhead, so there is the opportunity for some
of the stronger winds to mix to the surface. The wind direction
will generally be SSE so this favors areas over the northern
Adirondacks seeing the strongest winds, where gusts above 40 mph
are possible. Steadier rain arrives and the low-level jet exits
in the evening, so winds will calm down a bit. The cold front
will move through Monday night and will bring the heaviest
precipitation. Overall, rainfall amounts look to range from
around a third of an inch over northern areas to around an inch
over southern areas. Areas that receive heavier convective
showers will see locally more. There is a low risk of flash
flooding where the strongest convective storms set up.
Therefore, the whole region is in a marginal excessive rainfall
outlook for a 5% chance of flash flooding. Behind the front
Monday night, there should be a break in the rain, but
temperatures will stay relatively mild. Lows should be in the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...Troughiness will remain over our area for
Tuesday and Tuesday night as upper level trough lags behind surface
boundary which will push east of Vermont early Tuesday morning.
There will be a break in the precipitation chances Tuesday morning,
then increasing pops as we head into the afternoon hours with
vorticity swinging overhead. Showers will continue into the
overnight. Have a slight chance of thunder Tuesday afternoon in the
St Lawrence valley, then we lose surface based instability
overnight. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 60s in
Northern New York to upper 70s across the larger valleys in Vermont.
Overnight temperatures will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s,
coldest in the Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...Expect another showery day on Wednesday as
upper trough still remains over the region. Some drier air will
finally work into the area behind departing upper trough on
Thursday. Thursday continues to look like the coolest day of the
period with highs only reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s, with
breezy northwesterly flow. Models are depicting building ridge
towards the end of the week with an overall drying trend
anticipated. Temperatures will trend back towards seasonal normals
headed into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Winds are mixed across the forecast area
at the moment, from calm to variable 5-15 knots, depending on
the site. Winds are expected to pick up over the next 24 hours,
with gusts beginning around 11-14Z Monday, running 20-30 knots
out of the southeast through about 23Z Monday - 04Z Tuesday. The
sudden decrease in winds will be associated with incoming rain
and embedded thunder that should limit mixing of the atmosphere.
Exact visibilities are difficult to pinpoint at this moment, but
generally thinking showers will start off 3-5 miles vis with the
potential for IFR visibilities in heavier showers and storms. As
for ceilings, they`ll be decreasing gradually throughout the 24
hour period to MVFR by around 10-15Z Monday. From there, sites
most likely to have IFR cigs will be SLK, MPV, RUT, and MSS
around 21Z Monday - 00Z Tuesday. A strong low-level jet will
provide LLWS to all sites, primarily 12-14Z Monday onward.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Taber/Storm
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Storm