052
FXUS61 KBTV 190155
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
955 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue through the next several days without
significant rainfall. Above normal temperatures will continue
through Friday, and then temperatures will trend towards normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 953 PM EDT Wednesday...High clouds still blanket the
region this evening, though a few breaks can be seen via
satellite. Still expect an overall downward trend in extent of
cloud cover later tonight, which will allow patchy valley fog to
develop once again. Temperatures will bottom out in the 50s to
around 60F. The forecast has this all covered so just made some
minor tweaks to incorporate the latest obs with this update.

Previous discussion...Today has been another very quiet day.
Winds are calm areawide with some high altitude clouds streaming
northward. As a disorganized low pressure system in the mid-
Atlantic region heads northward along the coast tonight into
tomorrow, we will see a northerly wind develop by tomorrow
afternoon. These modest winds (mainly 5 to 10 MPH with a few
higher gusts) will be the main difference between today and
tomorrow. Temperatures and humidity will be generally similar
again to what have seen most of the week. The prevalence of high
clouds that have moved into the area today will persist, with
coverage tending to shift eastward through tomorrow such that
northern New York will become sunnier. Some of the thicker cloud
cover that will be present through tonight may thin out a bit
during the day tomorrow, which has led to a slight warming trend
in the forecast highs. The cloud cover tonight may reduce
radiational fog coverage a bit, but the light northerly flow and
moderately moist surface conditions along with persistence
suggests another round of dense fog. Tomorrow night I have also
brought fog into the climatologically favored locations after
midnight with low level flow still light enough to support its
development. That being said, increasing easterly flow overnight
in Vermont may lead to stratus.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...A weak coastal storm is forecast
to slowly move eastward off of the mid-Atlantic coast during the
period. However, the broad upper level circulation will be
elongated such that some mid-level moisture will be thrown back
into the northwest quadrant of the storm. The moisture advection
may be just enough to support a few showers in Vermont, and a
surface trough may be draped over eastern and south central
Vermont to help generate a more focused area of showers. So we
do have chances of showers in the midday through evening hours
primarily in these areas, but also extended into the western
Champlain Valley. Forecast soundings off of the GFS look
reasonable with weakly unstable profiles with low-topped
showers. That would be consistent with a fairly dry air mass and
only moderately warm and humid surface conditions, so rainfall
should be light. Low level temperatures only look slightly lower
than recent days, so another day of above normal temperatures
looks on track unless daytime cloud cover winds up being more
substantial than currently forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...Aside from lingering low chances
of showers in southern areas on Saturday, another dry weekend
should be in the cards. There is large spread in possible
rainfall on Tuesday with a split between scenarios that bring in
some light rain or keep us dry. Slight chances of showers
remain in mainly northern New York at this time. However, a more
substantial chance chance of rainfall still appears to come in
towards Wednesday or possibly next Thursday associated with a
more robust trough approaching from the west. However, the large
scale pattern over the central US, which would determine if we
see wet weather, is rather uncertain, so stay tuned!
Temperatures through the period look rather seasonable with
highs in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions will continue through about
05Z, then another round of valley fog is expected tonight. High
clouds will be thick enough to delay onset of fog a little bit
compared to previous nights, but otherwise expect conditions to
be very similar, with IFR/LIFR likley, particularly at
KSLK/KMPV. Otherwise, BKN-SCT ceilings around 20 kft will
prevail. Winds remain largely light and terrain driven through
the TAF period.


Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy BR.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Hastings