295
FXUS61 KBTV 260817
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
417 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of
southern Vermont will be possible while temperature warm back
into the upper 70s to 80 degrees. The next system will move into
the region on Memorial Day bringing breezy winds and widespread
rain and chances for Thunderstorms through early Tuesday.
Unsettled weather continues through the end of the week with
temperatures trending back to seasonal averages.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 AM EDT Sunday...A few showers are tracking through
central and southern Vermont this morning and will linger in
upslope areas of southern Vermont through this afternoon. With
temperatures climbing into the mid/upper 70s and around 80
degrees for broader valleys, an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible in southern Vermont. Elsewhere will be predominantly
dry.

Focus for impactful weather remains on a stronger variety system
expected to move into the North Country on Memorial Day. A
strong low level jet of 50-70kts at 850mb has consistently been
depicted accompanying the system. These speeds will promote an
influx of anomalously high PWATS greater than 1.5". Temperatures
in the 70s will also aid in destabilizing low levels to support
some embedded convection ahead of the warm front and within the
warm sector as well. As such, 0.4-1.5" of QPF is expected with
downslope areas of the northern Adirondacks into northern
Champlain Valley receiving as little as 0.25". The bulk of the
rain is expected to fall late Monday evening through the
overnight hours. Thunderstorms could push localized totals
higher resulting in a 5% chance of a flash flooding. Also, winds
could be locally strong on the northern flanks of the
Adirondacks and over/adjacent to Lake Champlain. 55kts present
at the 925mb level, peaking Monday afternoon ahead of rainfall,
will support some stronger gusts to around 40mph. If 925-850mb
winds continue to presented above 60kts ahead of rainfall,
higher gusts may occur; we`ll be watching this evolution over
the next 12-24hrs closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Sunday...Precipitation chances will be
diminishing Tuesday west to east with lingering rain in eastern
Vermont. With flow remaining southwesterly and overnight
temperatures remaining in the 60s, daytime highs Tuesday will
climb again into the mid/upper 70s to around 80 degrees; can`t
rule out a few thunderstorms, but supporting dynamics aloft are
not favorable for anything strong. Southwesterly flow and
moderately tight pressure gradient will support some continued
breezy conditions in northern New York; gusts ranging 20-30 mph
in general.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Sunday...Weather models continue to disagree on the
speed at which the upper low pressure will shift showers out of our
forecast area this week. Wednesday currently has the best potential
for precipitation in the long term as most models swing the trough
through then, while Friday shows some evidence of relatively drier
conditions and even some partly to mostly sunny skies. Ensembles
show decreasing chances of measurable precipitation as we move
toward and into the weekend. Not a lot of instability to speak of
during this period with a capping inversion around 800mb on
Wednesday, so mostly showers in the forecast for now. Highs for the
second half of the week will be in the upper 50s to lower 70s, a
touch cooler than seasonal averages for late May here in northern
New York and Vermont. The coolest day looks to be Thursday, with
highs only reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s and a breezy
northwesterly wind. Low temperatures will also take a minor hit as
the low pressure begins to peel off. Nighttime lows will go from the
50s Tuesday night to the 40s to lower 50s Wednesday- Friday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Low level clouds 040-060 have kept fog
chances nil through 06Z. Any appreciable chances of fog will be
predicated on the occurrences of rain on station at SLK/MPV and
clearing of skies for MSS/EFK. As such, kept some mist in at
SLK since main area of showers has formed just south of Saranac
Lake and not directly in line with the terminal. Also, MSS may
miss out with low level clouds widespread on satellite imagery;
kept mention of VCFG should any clearing occur. For BTV/PBG/RUT,
shower chances are marginal with RUT have the best chances of
seeing some rain. Kept light SHRA through 10Z. After 12Z, shower
chances decrease sharply with VFR anticipated through the
remainder of the periods.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Boyd