448
FXUS61 KBUF 200626
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
226 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like warmth today through mid-week with a chance of a shower
or isolated thunderstorm well inland form the lakes. Better chances
for showers and thunderstorms arrive Wednesday into Thursday with
the arrival of a cold front. Dry and cooler Thursday night through
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some patchy for will be possible overnight. Other than that dry
weather to continue with lows in the 50s to around 60F.

Summer-like warmth starts today. The mid-level ridge and sfc high
will slide east to the coast. Still looking like most locales will
stay dry but a shower or storm will still be possible on lake breeze
boundary during peak heating. Temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
above normal with most highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Dry weather to continue for all locales tonight. Mild night with
lows found in the upper 50s to low 60s.

A convectively enhanced shortwave cutting through the mid-level
ridge may introduce a shower or thunderstorm by Tuesday morning.
After that...this feature may also help to induce a few more storms
inland from the lakes in the afternoon during peak heating.

Otherwise...another unseasonably mild day with mercury readings
firmly in the 80s. We might even see a few 90F in the Genesee
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low passes northeast across the upper Great Lakes
Tuesday night and Wednesday, an approaching cold front will
support showers and thunderstorms to pass across the area from
west to east. Speaking of thunderstorms, provided the favorable
timing some storms may have the potential of becoming well
developed, as there will be plenty of instability with CAPE
values surge towards 2500-3000 J/kg and lapse rates reach
upwards of 8C/km, along with shear values of +150 m^2/s^2.
Showers and thunderstorms will then continue into Wednesday
night as the cold front passes across the area. Otherwise expect
another warm day Wednesday with highs surging into the low to
mid 80s across the higher terrain and the mid to upper 80s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front will be exiting our region Thursday, with a much drier
airmass settling into the region. A reinforcing secondary cold front
will lower 850 hPa temperatures into the mid single digits by Friday
morning, that with light winds should allow for mid 40s Thursday
night well inland, to around 50 near the Lakes.

High pressure will bring a dry start to the Memorial Day weekend
with moderating temperatures back to and above normal. There is a
potential hiccup, and that is for a potential return flow of low
level moisture that will bring clouds and light showers to the
region later Saturday and Saturday night as advertised by the 12Z
GFS and some of the ensemble members of the GFS/ECMWF. For now will
have slight chance PoPs until better agreement of this potential
return flow low level moisture by the models. The next
system/shortwave of note that will bring showers and thunderstorms
will arrive from the west later Sunday or Monday. There is still a
good deal of uncertainty with this feature, in part due to the
uncertainty in the timeframe ahead of it.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will give way to IFR in fog at some terminals
overnight into this morning.

Pockets of IFR fog will diminish giving way to widespread VFR
conditions with light winds today. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible but likely will not impact terminals.

Tonight...VFR expected at all area terminals.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers or a thunderstorm.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Not much airmass change over the lower Great Lakes tonight which
will keep the potential for more dense fog to develop. The greatest
chance of this looks to be across Lake Ontario.

Light winds with minimal wave action expected on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front
near the eastern Great Lakes, but conditions will likely remain
below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions
may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front into
the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...AR