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000
FXUS61 KBUF 141828
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
228 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving low pressure system will cross the region this
afternoon, resulting in a round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. In the wake of this system, high pressure will
build in tonight and bring a return to drier weather that will
last through Tuesday. Unsettled weather then returns by midweek
as another broad low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Compact low and cold front moving across southern Ontario with
surface warm extending into the western Southern Tier. Narrow band
of developing convection along the front from the Niagara Peninsula
into the Niagara Frontier will slide quickly southeast through the
rest of the afternoon. Differential heating within the warm sector
developing some surface based instability across the western
Southern Tier. The line of convection should become a bit better
organized as it moves into a more favorable environment through
mid afternoon across the Southern Tier. A few gusty storms with
some hail not out of the question, but lastest CAMs continuing
to suggest the more organized storms will be south of the New
York/Pennsylvania border.

Any showers and lingering thunderstorms across the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes will quickly exit to the south by late afternoon into
early this evening as the area of low pressure exits. Broad high
pressure building in from the west should lead to a mostly dry and
quiet night, though expect some wealth post-frontal clouds to
linger. There could also be a stray sprinkle up in the North
Country. Otherwise, temps will fall back into the low 40s in most
spots, with upper 30s across the Tug and Western Dacks.

Ridging will continue to build into the region Monday in the wake of
the cold front should keep a mainly dry forecast intact from the
Finger Lakes westward. Meanwhile, the base of an upper level trough
will linger across northern New York. A shortwave rotating southeast
through the base of the trough will send a secondary boundary
toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. This may develop a few showers,
mainly across the eastern Lake Ontario region, with best
chances toward the Saint Lawrence Valley closer to the surface
boundary. Expect seasonable temperatures with highs lower to mid
50s east of Lake Ontario, with mid 50s to near 60 across
western New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure slowly builds in aloft and at the surface Monday
night which will bring dry weather to all locales through the
day Tuesday.

A warm front will then slowly approach from the southwest Tuesday
night but will not have much of an impact with continued dry
weather. The warm front will then ever so slowly nudge east and
northeast on Wednesday. That said...it remains to be seen how much
inroads it will make as it runs into the stout ridge fixed to our
north and northeast. Furthermore...the system is weakening and
beginning to occlude as it moves east. Right now...the best shot at
seeing showers on Wednesday looks to be from the Finger Lakes region
west across western New York. Elsewhere...the North Country will
more than likely stay dry for much of the day Wednesday if not all.

Wednesday night...showers potenial does increase some but overall
coverage is uncertain and it may not be a complete washout. This is
where uncertainty really increases in the latest guidance package
with the overall progression of the fronts and shower coverage. Have
leaned on NBM guidance but have lowered PoPs a bit considering the
uncertainty.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to weaken as it presses east toward
the central Great Lakes and runs straight into the strong upper
ridge still parked over the Northeast. System then tracks north
as it shears out and becomes absorbed by a northern stream
trough pushing east across the Canadian Prairies. Stalled
boundary will linger across our area keeping the likelihood for
at least some light showers Thursday before all but washing
out.

Aforementioned northern stream trough will then approach the area
toward the tail end of the work week. A potent shortwave riding
along the leading edge of the upper trough and associated surface
cold front will slide across the area later Thursday night and
Friday bringing the next best chance for some showers to our region.
A secondary cold front will then cross the area toward the tail end
of the period bringing a shot of cooler air and a few more showers,
some of which may mix with a few wet flakes across the higher
terrain by the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR with brief MVFR showers through mid afternoon at all TAF
sites. A band of showers and scattered thunderstorms will pass
north to south across the region this afternoon along a cold
front. The greatest chance for thunderstorms will be from KJHW-
KDSV-KITH. There is a low chance for severe weather, mainly in
closer proximity to the NY/PA border (KJHW-KELZ). Brief, localized
IFR conditions will be possible in any storms that develop.
Southwest wind gusts near 35 knots will continue through 20Z at
KBUF and KIAG.

Showers will quickly taper off from north to south late this
afternoon and evening in the wake of the system. Partial
clearing is expected across western NY, though MVFR post-frontal
clouds are expected to fill in across much of the area.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.
Friday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A compact low pressure system and associated cold front will quickly
dive southeast across the lakes this afternoon. The track of this
low will cause west-southwest winds to increase in excess of 20
knots through this evening on Lake Erie. Winds will diminish later
tonight as weak high pressure builds back in behind the low.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/PP/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...PP/TMA