641
FXUS61 KBUF 181105
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
705 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control across much of New York and
northern New England keeping any shower activity associated with a
weak area of low pressure meandering northeast along the Mid
Atlantic and Jersey coastline off to our south and southeast through
the second half of the week. A weak backdoor cold front will then
cross the area from northeast to southwest toward the tail end of
the work week with an even stronger area of high pressure building
southwest across the area from eastern Canada keeping dry and only
slightly cooler conditions intact right through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A large upper level storm system centered over the western Carolinas
will continue to direct a wealth of high level clouds across our
region today into at least a portion of tonight, with some mid level
cloud making it northward to near the NY/PA line. Coincidentally,
this is also where the far northern extent of any isolated shower
activity will make it as surface high pressure maintains its grip on
much of New York and northern New England. While a stray sprinkle or
light shower may reach as far north as northcentral/northwestern PA,
do not expect any activity to cross north of the NY/PA line, at the
surface anyway. May see some echoes showing up on composite radar
imagery today over southern portions of our area, however any
precipitation falling out of a mid level deck should remain aloft as
it evaporates before hitting the ground while falling through very
dry air in the lower levels. Our summer-like temperatures will
continue with highs today mainly in the mid and upper 70s. Contrary
from the norm, the warmest temps (low 80s possible) will be found
toward the Saint Lawrence and Black River valleys where there will
be more in the way of sunshine. Meanwhile, low to mid 70s will be
common across the Southern Tier owed to the thicker cloud cover.

Low pressure will then move a bit further east tonight pulling any
precipitation on the northwestern periphery of the system well to
the southeast of our region, with dry conditions prevailing as high
pressure remains in control. Otherwise, lows tonight will again
mainly range through the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure south of New England will move little during the
period. Deeper moisture associated with the coastal low will remain
east of the area, as a mid level ridge continues to hold over the
region. Light winds will become northeast behind a backdoor cold
front Friday. An uptick in clouds will increase from northeast to
southwest Friday through Friday night.

Temperatures remain above normal, highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will extend south Saturday through Sunday
which should maintain dry and warm weather across the forecast area.
Ensemble means show the pattern becoming more amplified early next
week across the Great Lakes region. A trough may dig into the Mid-
West with moisture increasing from the south. Showers may move into
the region Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly trend
down but be above normal through the Long Term period.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR flight conditions expected through the 12Z TAF
period, with a couple late night through mid morning exceptions
continuing. Patchy areas of radiation fog along with typical valley
fog is expected into the first part of this morning. This will
mainly be across the Southern Tier (KJHW). Also, possibly at KART
once again as a light, but cool/moist drainage flow advects
southwest down the Saint Lawrence valley. Per usual however with
these scenarios, confidence in this actually directly impacting the
KJHW or KART airfield is not that high due to the patchy nature of
the fog and a weak, sometimes variable low level wind flow, not to
mention the blanket of cirrus aloft that could have at least some
impact.

Otherwise as mentioned above, widespread VFR conditions with light
winds will continue today through much of tonight. Will again see
the possibility for some radiation and typical valley fog late
tonight across the Southern Tier (KJHW) and toward the Saint
Lawrence valley which may impact KART.

Outlook...

Tonight through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in control through the end of the work
week maintaining a weak pressure gradient and thus mainly light
winds less than 10 knots and negligible waves. This will also
promote a weak onshore flow to develop each afternoon, with weak
land breeze circulations dominating at night.

A weak backdoor cold front will cross the Lakes late in the week.
This will bring an uptick in the easterly flow for the upcoming
weekend, mainly across Lake Ontario. However, winds should remain
below 15 knots with wave heights remaining less than 2 feet (less
than 3 feet open waters) across the western half of Lake Ontario.
Negligible waves expected elsewhere.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HSK/TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM