236
FXUS61 KBUF 180250
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1050 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain fair dry weather with mild weather
for the foreseeable future. Next chance for some much needed
rain may not come until early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Rather thick cirrus will `likely` obscure any chance of seeing
the partial lunar eclipse of the Harvest Super moon tonight.
If we are able to get a glimpse...just 8 percent of the top of
the full moon will become dark, with the eclipse lasting roughly
through 12:47 AM. Otherwise...dry weather with high pressure
over the region, look for mins in the 50s.

A large upper level storm system centered over the southern
Appalachians south-southeast will direct a wealth of high level
clouds across our region. Even so...a fairly stout ridge will
keep the area precipitation free through Wednesday night and
mild. Highs Wednesday will once again reach into the upper 70s
to lower 80s for the vast majority of the region. These
temperatures are more typical for July or early August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Coastal low pressure will dance off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday
through Friday night. A mid-level ridge will be over the eastern
Great Lakes region while deep moisture remains well east of the
forecast area. Light winds will become northeast behind a backdoor
cold front Friday. An uptick in clouds will increase from northeast
to southwest Friday through Friday night.

Temperatures remain above normal, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
and lows in the 50s across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will extend south Saturday through Sunday
which should maintain dry and warm weather across the forecast area.
Ensemble means show the pattern becoming more amplified early next
week across the Great Lakes region. A trough may dig into the Mid-
West with moisture increasing from the south. Showers may move into
the region Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly trend
down but be above normal through the Long Term period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cirrus will continue to stream across the region tonight. No impact
to aviation operations with VFR expected into Wednesday.

Between 08 and 12z overnight...there may be some valley fog to
contend with across the Srn Tier and very locally over some of the
airfields (ie. KJHW and KELZ). Confidence isn`t all that high.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak pressure gradient will promote light winds, under 10 knots, and
very little wave action through the rest of this week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR