034
FXUS61 KBUF 170533
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
133 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the coast of New England will extend back
across the Lower Great Lakes through Tuesday night. This will
maintain dry and warm weather throughout our region. The only
difference from the past several days will be a thickening blanket
of highs clouds that will push northward from low pressure drifting
north from the Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic. While a brief light
shower cannot be ruled out for parts of the Southern Tier on
Wednesday, high pressure will build back in to provide more dry and
warm weather for the remainder of the week and next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Satellite imagery showing a veil of cirrus clouds advancing
north across the region as upper level moisture streams
northward ahead of weak low pressure over the Carolinas. This
weak low will continue to drift northward through Tuesday night,
supporting persistent cirrus level cloudiness across the
eastern Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday night. Strong and
persistent high pressure surface and aloft will block any deeper
low/mid level moisture from moving much north of the
Mason/Dixon line through Tuesday night, keeping rain associated
with the system well removed from our area.

Above normal temperatures will continue through midweek and beyond.
Lows will drop back into the upper 50s to lower 60s on the lake
plains and low to mid 50s for the cooler Southern Tier valleys and
North Country tonight and Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday will reach
the lower 80s for lower elevations and mid to upper 70s for high
terrain and the immediate shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Model guidance is trending drier and warmer later in the work
week across the eastern Great Lakes region. A stacked closed low
over the southern Appalachians today will move east and open up
and join a trough along the east coast by Friday. A strong west
to east oriented ridge across the Great Lakes region will halt
the forward progress of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic region.
Global deterministic models and ensemble blends are consistent
with this trend. The chance for showers has lowered to 10-20%
across the western Southern Tier to Finger Lakes region
Wednesday to Thursday. Mid to high level moisture will be around
and result in more cloud cover across the region through
Thursday. Temperatures will average in the mid 70s to low 80s to
the 50s at night. A light northeast wind will keep the southern
Lake Ontario lakeshore a few degrees cooler through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A rex block will maintain warm and dry weather this weekend across
the eastern Great Lakes region. Above normal temperatures will
continue Friday through Monday, however highs will be a few degrees
lower than our current stretch.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A veil of cirrus level clouds will continue to spread northward
overnight and remain over the area much of Tuesday as upper level
moisture spreads north from a weak low drifting from the Carolinas
to the Mid Atlantic. Expect some patchy fog across the Southern Tier
river valleys and east of Lake Ontario again tonight through Tuesday
morning with local IFR. Similar to the past few nights, expect fog
to be limited to the KART terminal with all other terminals staying
VFR. Otherwise, VFR will continue to prevail Tuesday once the
morning fog burns off.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. A low chance of showers.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the
eastern Great Lakes through the rest of the week, as weak low
pressure meanders along the east coast. The layout of the weak
pressure pattern over the eastern US and southeast Canada will
continue to promote mainly weak east/northeast flow on Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario for the rest of the week, with sustained winds under 10
knots most of the time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/RSH
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock