Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
313 FXUS61 KBUF 230657 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 257 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area through the early morning bringing another round of showers and a few thunderstorms. Cooler more comfortable weather can be expected today into the first part of the Memorial Day weekend. Showers return for Saturday and then again later Sunday into the middle of the new work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... There will be a few showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front, but most of the activity will be along or immediately ahead of the approaching boundary. Instability continues to slowly lower out ahead of the front with the lack of diurnal heating, but there`s still around 500-1000 J/Kg from the Genesee Valley eastward. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually exit to our east through daybreak with some showers lingering into the first half of the morning, mainly for areas east of Lake Ontario. It will become mostly sunny through the day as clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast as drier air moves into the region behind the departing cold front. A cooler, but still above normal day today with afternoon highs mainly in the upper 60s to near 80 from the higher terrain to the lower elevations respectively. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather expected tonight as a ridge approaches with the region remaining in between synoptic systems on the north and southeast sides. Lows tonight will dip down to the low to mid 50s across the entire area. Dry conditions continue Friday as the ridge axis continue to slowly build over the region. Temperatures will range from near 70 over the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the upper 70s and lower 80s for the lower elevations south of Lake Ontario. Friday night, the ridge will continue to slowly approach and cross the region. Behind the passing ridge, a warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley will start to increase the potential for showers during the second half of the night. There is some timing uncertainty among guidance with the speed of the ridge crossing the region. Some models have the ridge moving through slower and showers not moving in until later in the day on Saturday, while other forecast guidance is a bit quicker with the showers moving into western New York a few hours before daybreak. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There will be a pattern shift into next week as an upper level trough deepens across the eastern Great Lakes region. This will bring a period of unsettled weather including the chance for showers and thunderstorms and cooler weather towards mid-week. Surface high pressure will lead to dry weather across the forecast area Sunday. A warm front will approach the region Sunday night and showers with the chance for thunderstorms will move into the region. An area of low pressure is forecast to track northwest of the forecast area Monday through Monday night. The best chance for rain will be Monday through Monday night as a cold front moves across the region. There is a risk of a few strong storms Monday, however confidence is low due to high uncertainty in evolution of this system. Confidence is higher that cooler air will move into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will feel much cooler due to the recent warm stretch, however temperatures will be only a few degrees below normal. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday due to an upper low nearby. The best chance will be in the afternoon through early evening. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will move through with the cold front through daybreak, then fair and dry weather for the rest of the day today. Best chance for thunderstorms will be across the north country early this morning, but should remain away from KART. Localized MVFR conditions in showers and a few thunderstorms possible this morning out ahead of and with the cold frontal passage. Widespread VFR flight conditions expected today. Outlook... Tonight and Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunday...Mainly VFR Monday...MVFR/VFR with showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A few showers and thunderstorms, mainly over Lake Ontario this morning will cause some gusty winds through the early morning. Southwest winds early this morning will shift to the west as a cold front crosses the region. High pressure will build into the region today through Friday, providing a gentle breeze. Winds will generally remain at a gentle breeze or lighter through most of the weekend as a shortwave trough crosses the area on Saturday and high pressure moves back into the region on Sunday. There could be some brief stronger convective related gusts on Saturday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/Apffel/SW/TMA NEAR TERM...Apffel/SW/TMA SHORT TERM...SW/TMA LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...Apffel/SW MARINE...SW