Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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759 FXUS61 KBUF 161342 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 942 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain the very warm, tranquil weather pattern across the area through at least Tuesday. A low pressure system moving inland from the Carolina coast to the Mid Atlantic will then spread moisture northward towards the area Tuesday night through the middle of the week. This will bring an increase in clouds and possibly a few showers by midweek, although the better chance of rain may stay south of our region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A sprawling area of high pressure off the New England coast will continue to extend its influence inland to the eastern Great Lakes. This will cause the weather through tonight to be very similar to what we`ve seen the last several days, complete with patchy fog early this morning (mainly in the interior valleys), warm daytime temperatures, and some diurnal cumulus in the afternoon. The main exception from the recent pattern will be some additional high cloud cover later today as blowoff cirrus from PTC-8 drifts northward. The presence of mid/high clouds tonight though should at least work against fog development outside of the Southern Tier river valleys. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Deep-layer ridging still draped across our region Tuesday will withdraw slowly southeastward through midweek, as a (sub)tropical low over the Carolinas pushes inland. With high pressure continuing to dominate, Tuesday will feature another fair weather day with warm temperatures, albeit with some increasing mid and high level clouds. Temperatures may not be quite as warm as previous days with the expected additional cloud cover with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. The latest guidance has deviated some from previous runs, keeping the ridge closer to the area and holding the inland movement of the closed low father to the south. This will limit the northward spread of moisture into the region. Both the deterministic and ensemble runs of the ECMWF and GFS are showing this trend, which suggest that western and north central New York may remain dry through the period. At this point, will not completely remove rain chances during the Tuesday night through Wednesday night time frame, but will trend the forecast toward lower rain probabilities with Wednesday afternoon and night having the best chance to see at least a few showers possibly sneaking into the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic region will merge with a trough over the Northeast region Thursday through Friday. An anomalously strong ridge over the Mississippi Valley will move into Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region, replacing the trough as it exits to the east. Moisture will be somewhat pooled under a weakening upper level low across the Mid-Atlantic region into New York State Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered near the Upper Great Lakes and extend into western and north central NY. Daytime heating and dewpoints in the 60s may result in the development of showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through evening. Due to no obvious lifting mechanisms nearby, coverage looks scattered. Subsidence builds into the region Friday which will be mostly dry, however isolated to scattered showers remain possible inland from the lakes. A 585dm ridge will move into the region Saturday and Sunday, with medium to high confidence of another warm and dry weekend. Above normal temperatures will continue Wednesday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions with light winds can be expected through the TAF period. The exception could be some valley fog across the western Southern Tier late tonight...but given the addition of a fair amount of cirrus...any fog will be less widespread/concentrated. Outlook... Tuesday...VFR. Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. A low chance of showers. Friday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the eastern Great Lakes early this week, with light winds and minimal wave action. Light synoptic scale winds will again allow local lake breeze circulations to develop this afternoon with onshore winds of 5-10 knots in most areas. The pressure gradient will tighten a bit by Tuesday as a low pressure system slowly drifts northward from the Mid-Atlantic states. This will lead to a prevailing light to moderate east- northeasterly breeze on the lakes, which could result in a minor chop on the western end of Lake Ontario at times. This low pressure system could also bring a few showers to the lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/PP NEAR TERM...PP SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...RSH MARINE...Hitchcock/PP