759
FXUS61 KBUF 161342
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
942 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain the very warm, tranquil weather pattern
across the area through at least Tuesday. A low pressure system
moving inland from the Carolina coast to the Mid Atlantic will then
spread moisture northward towards the area Tuesday night through the
middle of the week. This will bring an increase in clouds and
possibly a few showers by midweek, although the better chance of
rain may stay south of our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A sprawling area of high pressure off the New England coast will
continue to extend its influence inland to the eastern Great Lakes.
This will cause the weather through tonight to be very similar to
what we`ve seen the last several days, complete with patchy fog
early this morning (mainly in the interior valleys), warm daytime
temperatures, and some diurnal cumulus in the afternoon. The main
exception from the recent pattern will be some additional high cloud
cover later today as blowoff cirrus from PTC-8 drifts northward. The
presence of mid/high clouds tonight though should at least work
against fog development outside of the Southern Tier river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Deep-layer ridging still draped across our region Tuesday will
withdraw slowly southeastward through midweek, as a (sub)tropical
low over the Carolinas pushes inland. With high pressure continuing
to dominate, Tuesday will feature another fair weather day with warm
temperatures, albeit with some increasing mid and high level clouds.
Temperatures may not be quite as warm as previous days with the
expected additional cloud cover with highs in the mid 70s to around
80 degrees.

The latest guidance has deviated some from previous runs, keeping
the ridge closer to the area and holding the inland movement of the
closed low father to the south. This will limit the northward spread
of moisture into the region. Both the deterministic and ensemble
runs of the ECMWF and GFS are showing this trend, which suggest that
western and north central New York may remain dry through the
period. At this point, will not completely remove rain chances
during the Tuesday night through Wednesday night time frame, but
will trend the forecast toward lower rain probabilities with
Wednesday afternoon and night having the best chance to see at least
a few showers possibly sneaking into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic region will merge with a
trough over the Northeast region Thursday through Friday. An
anomalously strong ridge over the Mississippi Valley will move into
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region, replacing the trough as it exits
to the east.

Moisture will be somewhat pooled under a weakening upper level low
across the Mid-Atlantic region into New York State Thursday. Surface
high pressure will be centered near the Upper Great Lakes and extend
into western and north central NY. Daytime heating and dewpoints in
the 60s may result in the development of showers and a few
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through evening. Due to no obvious
lifting mechanisms nearby, coverage looks scattered. Subsidence
builds into the region Friday which will be mostly dry, however
isolated to scattered showers remain possible inland from the lakes.
A 585dm ridge will move into the region Saturday and Sunday, with
medium to high confidence of another warm and dry weekend.

Above normal temperatures will continue Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions with light winds can be expected through the TAF
period. The exception could be some valley fog across the western
Southern Tier late tonight...but given the addition of a fair amount
of cirrus...any fog will be less widespread/concentrated.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. A low chance of showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the
eastern Great Lakes early this week, with light winds and minimal
wave action. Light synoptic scale winds will again allow local lake
breeze circulations to develop this afternoon with onshore winds of
5-10 knots in most areas.

The pressure gradient will tighten a bit by Tuesday as a low
pressure system slowly drifts northward from the Mid-Atlantic
states. This will lead to a prevailing light to moderate east-
northeasterly breeze on the lakes, which could result in a minor
chop on the western end of Lake Ontario at times. This low pressure
system could also bring a few showers to the lakes Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Hitchcock/PP