257
FXUS61 KBUF 280622
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
222 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An usually deep storm for this time of year over Quebec will
circulate cool air across our region through Thursday. The below
normal temperatures will be accompanied by widespread later today
into Tuesday night with notable less coverage in showers on
Wednesday. Day to day warming can then be expected for the end of
the week and through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While the organized shower activity has long since departed the
region...scattered showers will be found across parts of western New
York through daybreak.

The showers from the overnight will become fairly widespread during
the day Tuesday...as a robust shortwave (well defined over srn
Wisconsin at 06z) will rotate through the base of a longwave trough
and cross our forecast area during the afternoon. Have bumped pops
to high likely-categorical with the afternoon being quite unsettled.
Elevated CAPE of 100-200 j/kg could even allow for a thunderstorm or
two. Temperatures for this upcoming day will largely be in the 60s.

As the aforementioned shortwave exits to our east tonight...the
associated shower activity will gradually wind down. We will remain
overcast though with temperatures settling into the low to mid 50s.

While the base of the longwave trough will remain centered over our
region on Wednesday...shortwaves moving through the deep cyclonic
flow should largely track by to our south. A weak secondary cold
front will stall across Pennsylvania at that time as well...so the
only organized shower activity for our area will be over the western
Southern Tier. Otherwise...partial clearing will be found further to
the north...particularly east of Lake Ontario. Unfortunately...high
temperatures will once again only in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday night, earlier showers should be out of the area,
minus a few sprinkles for the Southern Tier and for areas well
southeast of Lake Ontario. Clearing skies from northwest to
southeast, along with a mostly northerly flow will bring one of
the cooler nights the area has seen in a while with overnight
lows dropping to the low to upper 40s.

The region will remain situated under broad, positively tilted
upper level troughing centered over the Canadian Maritimes
Thursday. To the west, a strong, progressive ridge of high
pressure will be building eastward over the Great Lakes region.
The surface high from this feature will "undercut" the initial
upper level troughing to a degree, so while it should be another
day of cooler than normal weather, it will be drier across the
region compared to Wednesday. There remains a very low chance
(15-20%) chance of showers across portions of the North Country
Thursday afternoon, which will be further removed from the
stabilizing effects of the high to the west.

Cool, dry and tranquil weather then expected Thursday night as
the upper level trough axis quickly pivots away from the eastern
Great Lakes and into New England. Temps will again fall back
into the 40s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large area of high pressure and stout ridge will build east
into  the region during the long term period. The surface high
and large ridge will be centered over the region from Friday
afternoon through Saturday evening, ensuring fair dry weather.

There are some timing issues with the next incoming trough and
how  quickly the large ridge weakens and/or moves east. Due to
this, some guidance is bringing in the potential for showers
starting on Sunday morning, but with the lack of certainty, left
at most sChc POPs. Rain chances increase some on Monday as
another weak shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region on
the lee side of the building ridge.

Temperatures for the period will start out near normal values in
the  upper 60s and low 70s Friday, though warm to around 5-10
degrees above normal by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR cigs will be found through out the bulk of western and north
central New York for the remainder of the overnight. Cigs will
further lower to IFR levels in some areas after 08z...mainly across
the western Southern Tier and elevated airfields across the Finger
Lakes.

A wealth of low level moisture circulating around a deep storm over
Quebec will then continue to support mainly MVFR cigs for the region
on Tuesday. These cigs will be accompanied by an increasing
likelihood for showers...and even an isolated thunderstorm or two
for the afternoon.

MVFR cigs will be common throughout the region for at least the
first half of Tuesday night.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with a chance of showers.
Thursday through Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh southwesterlies will continue to support small
craft advisories through Tuesday for the nearshore waters...while
winds should subside enough for the SCA to expire Tuesday
morning in  BUF Harbor.

A weakening pressure gradient will then produce moderate north to
northwest breezes Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Mesonet obs at Woodgate confirm radar estimates with around 4
inches of rain measured Monday from a couple rounds of storms.
This is just south of our forecast area, but it is in the Black
River basin and will flow to the Boonville gauge. Basin averages
are less than that, but coordinated with the NERFC and expect a
basin average of around 3 inches to push the Boonville gauge to
above action stage into the upcoming day.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
         LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...PP/SW
LONG TERM...PP/SW
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
HYDROLOGY...Apffel