Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
780 FXUS65 KBYZ 300716 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 116 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday night... Current radar is showing weakening showers associated with a cold front making their way into SE MT this morning, expected to exit the state around sunrise. The HREF shows additional showers currently over the western mountains and foothills tracking east, but nothing more than a light shower is expected. Conditions today will be cooler and breezy following the front with temperatures in the 60s expected across the region. The western foothills (Big Timber, Livingston, Harlowton) will likely see gusts of 25-35 mph mainly during the morning hours today. Additional trailing energy from the low will continue to make its way through MT through Friday night. However, westerly flow and resulting downsloping as well as a lack of moisture will likely prevent any precipitation for most areas. Chances are best out east (15-30%) where westerly flow and SE sfc winds could create some convergence for precip. Highs Friday will be warmer with temperatures in the 60s and low 70s. Lows Thursday and Friday morning will generally be in the upper 30s to 40s. TS Saturday through Wednesday... Progressive westerly flow will persist thru the first part of next week, bringing occasional chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms. There are signs of building heights after Tuesday. A couple of weak shortwaves will bring a risk of showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms late Saturday through Sunday. Sunday night thru Monday morning should be dry, then another Pacific shortwave will reach the northern Rockies Monday afternoon. Models remain uncertain with this potentially stronger wave, its amplitude, whether a blocking high will exist in northern Canada, and how all of this will affect the Pacific flow into western Canada. Cluster analysis shows fairly even spread in the differing solutions, as do ensemble QPF and wind signals. All of this is impossible to determine now. That said, expect warmer pre-frontal conditions Monday followed by late day showers and thunderstorms which may linger into Tuesday (a potentially windy post-frontal day). Some stronger storms could be in store for late day Monday. Starting Wednesday there is confidence for building heights associated with strengthening western CONUS ridge, but it remains to be seen whether flow aloft will be out of the WSW (flat ridge axis over high plains) or NW (more amplified ridge axis to our west and deep low over the great lakes). The latter scenario would result in backdooring cooler air and would be slower to introduce higher pwats. Stay tuned. Temps Saturday thru Tuesday will go warmer-cooler-warmer-cooler, per the progressive flow and couple of Pacific cold fronts. Monday looks like the warmest of these days with low-mid 80s possible, depending on how amplified the next trof is. Wednesday looks dry with more widespread 80s possible (or maybe even near 90F). Again, lots of uncertainty by the middle of next week. JKL && .AVIATION... Showers will taper off from west to east early this morning, with precip generally ending by sunrise. Isolated light showers are expected during the day and into the evening near the mountains/ foothills and north of KLVM-KBIL-KBHK. VFR will prevail, but the mountains will be occasionally obscured in rain/snow showers. Breezy mixed winds will impact the region today. Expect widespread W-NW gusts of 20-35 knots. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 063 043/069 045/078 053/073 053/084 055/078 055/085 1/N 00/B 00/U 23/T 01/B 32/W 10/U LVM 060 037/068 040/079 048/073 050/081 050/075 050/082 1/N 00/U 01/B 33/T 02/T 42/W 10/N HDN 064 041/070 042/081 051/075 051/087 055/080 052/086 2/W 01/B 00/U 22/W 01/B 32/W 10/U MLS 064 041/068 043/080 054/076 052/084 057/078 053/085 0/N 02/W 00/U 21/B 00/B 32/W 10/U 4BQ 063 041/068 043/081 053/076 052/086 058/079 054/084 0/U 02/T 00/U 11/B 10/B 21/B 10/U BHK 063 038/067 040/079 051/076 048/084 054/076 050/081 0/N 02/W 00/U 22/T 10/B 22/W 10/U SHR 060 038/068 041/082 049/073 049/086 054/078 050/085 2/W 11/U 00/U 12/T 00/B 22/T 10/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings