441
FXUS62 KCAE 161324
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
924 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging will provide a brief break in the unsettled conditions
today. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again Friday and
especially on Saturday with unsettled weather likely lingering into
Sunday. A cooler and drier air mass moves in for Monday and Tuesday
with temperatures rebounding during the middle of next week as
another ridge moves in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Drier air on aloft WV imagery will remain over the area today
and into tonight as upper level ridging builds over the region.
With the plentiful surface moisture available from recent rains
expect some scattered cumulus to develop from mid morning
through the afternoon hours however with a weak inversion aloft
and 850-500 mb lapse rate at 5.5 C/Km expect vertical
development to be limited and no showers today. This evening
with the loss of heating the cumulus will dissipate with mostly
clear skies expected overnight. High temperatures this afternoon
will range from the low 80s in the northern Midlands and Pee
Dee to the mid 80s in the central Midlands and CSRA. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday and Friday Night: The day begins with the upper ridge axis
overhead before flattening out and moving east in response to a
digging trough over the Central CONUS. PWATs gradually rise through
the day as the next storm system approaches. Clouds lower and
thicken with showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon
and evening hours, especially north and west of I-20. The rain
should then increase in coverage during the overnight with a few
thunderstorms also possible. The severe threat appears to be low
(Less than 20%) though modeled soundings do show adequate shear for
a few stronger updrafts to develop with gusty winds as the primary
hazard. Temperatures should be similar to today with near to above
normal highs and above normal lows.

Saturday and Saturday Night: While some timing differences persist
in the global models, confidence in periods of rain and
thunderstorms on Saturday is High (80%) with convection most likely
during the afternoon and evening hours as an area of low pressure
approaches. A shortwave trough moves into the region later in the
day as well and provides needed lift to increase the threat of a few
strong to severe thunderstorms. The Day 3 SPC Severe Weather Outlook
places the entire CWA in a Marginal (1/5) risk. Given the expected
clouds and rain, the amount of stability will be in question and a
Marginal risk makes sense at this time. Once again damaging winds
will be the primary severe hazard. Daytime temperatures should be a
few degrees cooler than Friday but around normal values with above
normal temperatures at night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday as low
pressure becomes vertically stacked and drifts offshore. Rain
coverage will likely be lower than on Saturday. Therefore, PoPs are
lower, roughly 45 to 65 percent, with the highest probabilities
closer to the coast. This system continues to drift to our southeast
on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure and northerly flow advect
cooler and drier air into our FA. Monday will likely be the coolest
day with temperatures rebounding towards the end of the extended as
upper ridging builds in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR through the end of the period.

SCT diurnal cumulus will develop from mid morning through the
afternoon hours however expect vertical development to be
limited with no showers or thunderstorms. Winds through the
period will be NW to N at 7 knots or less. Patchy fog is
possible tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible again Friday afternoon
through Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$