436
FXUS62 KCAE 191455
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1055 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture across the region will keep rain chances
likely lingering into Sunday, especially across the CSRA. Drier
air will be over the region for Monday through Wednesday along
with warming temperatures.The next frontal boundary will
approach the region Thursday and is expected to stall just north
of the area resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level low and associated reflection at the surface is
positioned across east-central Georgia as of late this morning.
Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front extends eastward from the
surface low across the lower CSRA and into southern SC, with a
northerly wind shift noted behind the front. In addition, a
secondary front appears positioned across the northern Midlands,
with a slight uptick in winds and notably drier air north of
that boundary.

Convection is ongoing across the upper CSRA in proximity to the
upper and surface lows. Light isolated to scattered showers
could be a possibility along and south of the the secondary
front as it drops southward through the afternoon. However,
higher resolution mesoscale models show more robust convection
along the backdoor cold front into this afternoon, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly impacting
the lower CSRA and parts of the southern Midlands.

The northerly flow and overcast skies, which should last through
much of the afternoon, will limit overall heating today. As a
result, expect highs in the mid to upper 70s, warmest across the
southern Midlands and CSRA.

As drier air filters southward through the day, rainfall
potential will come to an end by this evening, with dry
conditions overnight. Clouds will also decrease during the
evening. With clearing skies and drier air filtering in, a cool
night is anticipated with forecast lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be moving toward the central Atlantic States
from the western Great Lakes today and be centered north of
the area tonight. This will keep dry conditions over the
forecast area with northerly winds between 5 and 10 mph from
late morning through the afternoon hours. With cool and dry air
in the mid and low levels the only clouds expected through the
period will be some cirrus crossing the region. High
temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 50s to around
60. Radiational cooling will be good tonight however light winds
combined with the cirrus will prevent cooling from becoming
optimal. This will yield overnight lows ranging from the low 30s
north to the upper 30s in the SE Midlands and southern CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level trough will continue tracking away from the region
Monday as upper level ridging builds from the western Gulf States
through New England. On Tuesday the ridge will migrate slightly
eastward with its progress being slowed by the deep upper level
trough remaining over the western Atlantic. At the surface weak
high  pressure will be in control of the Atlantic Seaboard
keeping drier air over the forecast area for Monday and Tuesday.
Pwat values will drop to around 0.9 inches Monday morning and
remain there through Tuesday with model soundings indicating a
weak subsidence inversion. With the subsidence inversion
suppressing convection expect cumulus to develop each day
however vertical development will be limited. Temperatures will
also moderate slightly each day as the upper level ridge builds
into the region and surface flow turns from northeasterly to
easterly on Tuesday. As such afternoon high temperatures on
Monday will be in the low 80s and the mid 80s on Tuesday. With
mostly clear skies and light winds expected each night
radiational cooling will be good allowing overnight lows to fall
into the upper 50s to around 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions Likely to Persist at the Terminals this Morning...

A backdoor cold front continues to drop south of the terminals
late this morning, with a secondary front poised to press
through the area later this afternoon. Flight restrictions are
present at most terminals due to lowered ceilings late this
morning. These low clouds are likely to persist through late
afternoon. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible
at the terminals this afternoon, mainly at AGS/DNL.
Thunderstorm potential has been omitted from the TAFs for now
due to low confidence. Drier air moves in from the north this
evening allowing ceilings to rise to VFR by 00Z Monday with
clearing skies tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... No significant flight restrictions
are currently anticipated Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$