Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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285 FXUS62 KCAE 160649 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 249 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front moving through the area stalls to the south of the forecast area today. Thus, expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening. High pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal temperatures are then expected through much of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An upper ridge continues to build over the Southeast today and tonight, allowing for continued warmth across the forecast area. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to meander through the forecast area, which should keep highs a few degrees cooler than Saturday. A surface high of the Mid-Atlantic coast will allow for onshore flow over our neck of the woods, bringing more moisture into the area. As a result, expect isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop and spread westward through the day. Unlike yesterday, the chances for precipitation cover the entire forecast area. With the ridge settling in overhead, temperatures aloft are expected to be warmer than yesterday. Model soundings also hint at a capping inversion, which will likely limit the severe threat. However, inverted V soundings suggest some gusty winds could accompany any thunderstorms today. Despite the cold front moving through today, temperatures are expected to climb to the lower to mid 90s. Did go with a forecast high on the higher end of the model solution spectrum because of the ridge building overhead and guidance was a few degrees too cool for many locations yesterday. If clouds are more widespread earlier than anticipated, highs today could be a bit cooler than forecast. Overnight lows remain near 70. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure aloft builds over the Carolinas Monday and expands northward into the Mid Atlantic States and New England on Tuesday. The H5 high pressure system position and the subsidence underneath will shunt the deepest moisture to the west of the region and result in mainly dry conditions. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal for mid June. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Much above normal H5 heights are very likely to be centered over New England and the Mid Atlantic States from the middle of next week into next weekend. The orientation of these exceptionally high H5 heights shifts from northeast to southwest to east to west as the week progresses. This could allow an inverted upper trough to move onshore around Thursday and enhance the sea breeze front. A chance of convection should be possible, especially near the sea breeze front. The H5 high center should shift southward into the Carolinas by next weekend which would decrease the chance of diurnal convection and lead to a greater potential of excessive heat. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Generally VFR/MVFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period. Some mid level clouds are being noted over the southern portions of the forecast area, but have generally cleared the terminals. A thin layer of smoke has also been observed at CAE/CUB, but no there have been no vis restrictions. With the rain on Saturday at OGB, some MVFR fog has developed. MVFR fog is also possible at AGS now that skies are clearing out there. Isolated to scattered showers and storms could bring restrictions to the terminals this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this point. Light and variable winds become southeast between 5 and 10 kts after 16z-17z and returning to light and variable after about 00z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$