Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
716 FXUS62 KCAE 121756 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 156 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak ridging will remain over the region through the weekend, allowing temperatures to slowly rise with typical summertime showers and thunderstorms. Some strong storms possible into this evening. The ridge breaks down early next week, leading to cooler temperatures and higher rain chances once again during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Scattered strong storms expected again into this evening. The region will remain along the northern periphery of an upper level ridge through tonight. Meanwhile, Atlantic high pressure prevails over the western Atlantic, maintaining a flow of deep moisture into the area. The CAMs show scattered showers and thunderstorms developing through the afternoon, although timing and area of focus differ between many of the members. With a weak northwesterly flow aloft around the ridge axis, there is the potential for these storms to organize a bit and drop southeast across the area through much of the evening. The latest mesoanalysis depicts precipitable water values as high as 2.0-2.2 inches across the area. In addition, the deep moisture and strong heating has resulted in a moderately to strongly unstable atmosphere, with SBCAPE values upwards of 2500-3000 J/kg. Some drier air aloft could also advect in due to the northwest flow, pushing DCAPE values over 750 J/kg. All of these factors could support strong if not a few isolated severe thunderstorms through the evening, with wet microburst the primary threat. As a result, the most of the area remains in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Additionally, given the multiple rounds of rain we have seen the last few days, any training storms will have a flash flood potential given the efficient rain rates. Convection should dissipate late this evening, with some higher clouds lingering through the overnight hours. Abundant low level moisture could result in some light/patchy fog toward daybreak, and some stratus is possible, but HREF suggests the greatest coverage should remain east of the area. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Upper ridging brings hot and humid conditions with heat index values in the 100-105 range each day. - Isolated to scattered storms expected each afternoon and evening. Ridging is expected to continue over the region for Sunday and Monday while an upper trough is forecast to pass to our north. As a result, expect the typical summertime pattern to continue as we head into the work week. Highs in the mid to upper 90s combined with the summer humidity will likely result in heat index values in the 100- 105 range for both days. Be sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks if spending a lot of time outdoors, especially during peak heating. You can also expect the diurnal thunderstorm activity each day with more coverage anticipated on Monday as compared to Sunday. Given the inverted V forecast soundings each day, any stronger storm could produce strong to marginally severe winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key message(s): - Seasonal temperatures with scattered showers and storms possible each day. Upper ridge is expected to break down some for midweek, leading to slightly "cooler" temperatures along with scattered PM showers and thunderstorms each day. Ridging begins to build back over the region late in the week, bringing warmer temps back to the area. Latest NAEFS forecast PWAT values remain at least in the 90th percentile or above through the end of the long term, which will likely produce at least isolated shower and thunderstorm activity each day. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period, although some temporary restrictions are possible. Abundant moisture and instability will support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of this evening. The TAFs show a PROB30 at the terminals through mid- evening for thunderstorms, with potential flight restrictions and gusty/erratic winds. There is a small potential for stratus and/or patchy fog toward daybreak, but confidence in its development is not great enough to include mention in the forecast at this time. Winds throughout the period will generally be light, primarily from the southwest through this evening, then the northwest Sunday morning. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is the possibility of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this weekend with the potential for periodic restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$