495
FXUS62 KCAE 141436
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1036 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally low chances for rain overnight tonight. There will be
a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day through early
next week with deep moisture over the region. Low pressure is
expected to develop offshore next week, potentially enhancing
rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Mostly cloudy conditions.
- Periodic light showers are possible.

10:30 AM Update: A couple areas of light showers are persisting
late this morning, namely along the I-26 corridor and along the
Savannah River. This activity is slowly drifting south and
westward. Radar is showing that these showers are gradually
dissipating as well. Expect the shower activity to continue to
diminish, but as moisture continues to be fed into the forecast
area, at least a slight chance of showers continues throughout
the day. Still looking like drier air filters into the northern
portions of the forecast area, so have kept PoPs out of there.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track from early this morning.
See more below.

Earl-morning update: Not a whole lot of change in the overall
pattern through tonight. Francine remnants will continue to
slowly spin over western TN. Closer to SC/GA, a weak surface
trough will remain off the coast. Between these systems, and
area of high pressure off to the north will keep low level
northeasterly wedge wind flow pattern across the region. Through
the day, moisture will lift over the surface wedge, keeping a
good amount of clouds and some light rain across the region this
morning. QPF amounts will continue to be light with any
rainfall. May see some drier air moving in across the northern
cwa this afternoon, which may help to bring some breaks in the
clouds. With a tight pressure gradient between the offshore
trough and the ridge of high pressure north of the region,
breezy conditions will remain. Winds around 10 mph, with gusts
above 20 mph through the period. As for temperatures, readings
remain below normal with the expected cloud cover for much of
the day. Highs only in the lower 80s. Lows tonight back into the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Light showers possible

Easterly mid and low level flow will promote weak moisture
advection over the forecast area leading to mostly cloudy skies
on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will ridge into the
region from the north with near-surface dry air undercutting the
moisture aloft. As a result, the highest pops will be in the
southern portion of the forecast area. However with shallow
moisture and weak lapse rates we expect mostly scattered showers
with possibly an isolated thunderstorm. There could be some
breaks in the cloud cover during the afternoon, especially in
the northern portion of the forecast area, but overall cloudy
skies should keep temperatures below normal in the low to mid
80s. Developing low pressure offshore will promote a
strengthening pressure gradient and breezy winds with gusts
around 20 mph. However a Lake Wind Advisory is unlikely to be
needed. Shower activity will decrease overnight but a few
lingering sprinkles could be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated or scattered showers possible through the long term
- Low pressure will develop offshore early next week and may
  increase rainfall chances

Global ensemble models favor an upper level trough amplifying
over the eastern US through the long term. As surface low
pressure develops offshore of the Carolinas early next week we
will see moisture advect back into the region. Depending on the
track of the low, rain could spread into portions of the
forecast area early Monday and Tuesday. PWAT values from the
GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members show a large spread through the
week pointing to uncertainty in the precip forecast. There is at
least a slight chance of rain through the remainder of the long
term but the threat of hazardous weather appears low. With
below normal heights favored and the potential cloud cover or
rain each day, near or slightly below normal daytime
temperatures are favored.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR conditions through the morning hours before vfr
conditions return by this afternoon and tonight..

Regional observations at taf locations showing a mixture of mvfr
and ifr ceilings. In addition, some light rain/drizzle will
remain possible through late morning as Atlantic moisture moves
over top of surface wedge conditions. A return to vfr is being
indicated by guidance by this afternoon with better mixing and
slightly drier air moving into the area, and have trended that
direction with all tafs. Once again late tonight around 06z a
return of mvfr ceilings should develop. As for winds, easterly
winds will remain around 10 knots with gusts up to 18 knots as
strong low-level jet will be over the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered showers with possible
restrictions at times through Monday as moisture pools over the
area along a front and low pressure in the southeast.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$