937
FXUS61 KCAR 072006
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
406 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An occluded front washes out over Maine tonight. An upper level
trough of low pressure will slowly cross the area this weekend,
then continue northeast into the Maritimes on Monday. High
pressure will build into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Over the next few hours continue to see the occluded front
drifting NE through Central Highlands heading for Northern Maine
despite washing out. E-SE winds continue to downslope off the
Miramichi Highlands of New Brunswick with partly sunny skies
till sunset in NE Aroostook County. While much of the area on
E-SE winds from the Maritimes resulting in low stratus clouds
along with those showers. A few breaks in the clouds before
sunset near Moosehead may allow for brief destabilizing of the
atmosphere and some convection may try to fire especially up and
along the Quebec border.

Tonight, that slow moving occluded front will continue drifting
NE through Maine as it completely washes out. Scattered to
numerous showers are associated with the front gradually
drifting north to the St. John Valley in Northern Maine. E-SE
winds will drive the marine airmass back inland across much of
the Downeast up to the Longfellow Mtns with patchy to areas of
fog developing. Fog will likely become dense again along the
Downeast coast and will allow the next shift to see if an
advisory will be needed once it progresses inland. Behind the
front the atmosphere above the boundary layer stable air will
slowly become unstable overnight as the 500mb low shifts from
Ontario into Quebec with cooling temperatures aloft. We will
become in the left exit region of the jet resulting in
increasing surface lift. At the same time strong vort max will
pivot around the trof and keep the showers going tonight and
cannot rule out with some elevated instability a few lightning
strikes but overall expecting mainly just showers. Showers
tonight will be decent rain producers with moist modeled
soundings and PWATs increasing to 1-1.2 inch which is 0.2-0.3
inch above climo normals. Combined with increasing ascent may
produce some areas of moderate to brief heavy rainfall. However,
given the long term precip deficits and very dry soils expecting
this rain to be beneficial and not concerned with excessive
rainfall at this point. In the North Woods with groundwater
conditions near record dry conditions heavy rainfall may
struggle to be absorbed at first resulting in increased runoff,
however flooding risk remains near-zero. Temperatures tonight
fall back into the low to mid 50s with the clouds and showers.

Tomorrow, models in fairly good agreement that the 500mb low
shifts into Eastern Quebec near the Maine border with cooler
850mb temperatures overhead. Shortwave energy will pivot around
the trof over Maine so expecting several areas of showers across
the area tomorrow. Expecting a mainly cloudy day tomorrow but a
few sunny breaks are possible and with any sunshine and cooler
air aloft will result in afternoon convection. Modeled soundings
showing 750-1250j/kg of SBCAPE developing tomorrow afternoon
especially away from the coast. Given the cooler boundary layer
lapse rates struggle, however any daytime heating of the
boundary layer could steepen the lapse rates. Overall, not
expecting a threat from stronger storms and just expecting
widespread showers and some thunderstorms posing the risk of
lightning on a weekend. Expecting temperatures to climb into the
mid 60s north with upper 60s to near 70F in the Central
Highlands and upper 60s along the Downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The large upper level trough will continue to slowly exit the
area through the weekend, maintaining an broad area of
instability over the area with PWATs around one inch
representing plenty of available moisture. Rain showers will
continue Saturday night through Sunday, with Sunday afternoon
convection including the potential for lightning due to diurnal
heating in addition to the presence of the low.

High temperatures will remain in the 70s each day, while lows
fall into the low to mid 50s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Daily convection will continue through the week, as the previous
upper level trough presses eastward into the Canadian Maritimes.
Though high pressure will build into the area through the middle
of the week, enough lingering moisture and daytime heating will
exist for a daily chance for afternoon showers and storms.
Subsidence from the high pressure will keep low to mid level
winds light, and shear will be limited through the end of the
week, limiting the threat for any storms to become severe. As
the week continues, southwesterly return flow will lead to daily
high temperatures increasing into the upper 70s to lower 80s by
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FVE, CAR, PQI...VFR/SCT MVFR this evening becoming
MVFR then IFR tonight. VCSH then -SHRA. BCFG/BR possible. E-SE
winds 5-15kt. Tomorrow, IFR/LIFR becoming MVFR. -SHRA likely
and possible TS in the afternoon. E-SE winds 5-15kt.

HUL...VFR/SCT MVFR becoming IFR/LIFR this evening with -SHRA
expected and BR. E-SE winds 5-15kt. Tomorrow, IFR/LIFR becoming
MVFR tomorrow. -SHRA likely and possible TS in the afternoon.
E-SE winds 5-15kt.

Southern Terms...MVFR/IFR becoming IFR/LIFR this evening. -SHRA
and FG likely. FG may potentially reduce vsby less than 1/2SM in
BHB. E-SE winds 5-10kt. Becoming MVFR tomorrow with FG breaking
and -SHRA likely and potentially TS at BGR. Possible low-end VFR
at BGR by tomorrow afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday night. Light NW wind....IFR north. IFR To MVFR south.
SW wind.

Sunday...IFR north and MVFR south. Afternoon thunderstorms
possible across all terminals. Light W wind.

Sunday night...IFR to MVFR north. MVFR to VFR south. Light W
wind.

Monday...MVFR north. VFR to occasionally MVFR south. Slight
chance for afternoon thunderstorms across all terminals. NW
wind. Light W winds.

Monday night...MVFR to VFR north. VFR south. Light NW wind.

Tuesday...VFR early, with brief MVFR possible into Tues
afternoon with any showers and storms. A chance for
thunderstorms, particularly across the northern terminals. Winds
light and variable.

Tuesday...VFR with winds light and variable.

Wednesday...VFR early, with brief MVFR possible into Wed
afternoon with any showers and storms. Generally light SW
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions through tomorrow.
Seas may approach 5ft at times this evening 15-25nm offshore
thanks to SE fetch but winds will shift S tonight then SW
tomorrow. Seas subside to between 2 and 4ft tomorrow. Rain
showers and fog will reduce vsby especially tonight potentially
less than 1/2nm.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA
conditions Saturday night through the first half of next week.
Seas will sit around 3 to 4 ft early before decreasing into next
week. Patchy dense fog is likely over the waters Sunday into
Monday, but the threat for fog may diminish into the middle of
the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...Sinko/AStrauser