816
FXUS61 KCAR 070233
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1033 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough of low pressure will slowly approach
into Friday and cross the region this weekend into Monday. A
cold front clears east of the area Monday night with high
pressure building in for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030 pm update...
Showers are still struggling against dry air as they head east
and hv lowered pops accordingly. A few radar echoes have
developed in warm advection ahead of occlusion from the Central
Highlands into Downeast but have since dissipated and not even
convinced they produced much more than a sprinkle. Fog and low
stratus have developed over the Downeast coast and have issued
an SPS for locally dense fog through the overnight. Would not be
surprised for a need for a Dense Fog Advisory at some point
later tonight but not confident in this scenario this early. BHB
wavering back and forth between 1 mile and 9 miles within an
hour this evening and would like to see more consistent nature
of dense fog along the coast.

Prev discussion blo...
A weak occluded front will be slowly progressing NE into New
England tonight which will be the beginning phase of an
unsettled next several days. Large 500mb low slides east into
the Eastern Great Lakes states and Ontario tonight. Expecting
the chance of showers to increase across western portions of the
CWA including Moosehead Region, Bangor area and Downeast coast.
Skies gradually becoming overcast areawide tonight with a
partial clearing before midnight confined to Northeast Aroostook
but overall cloudy late tonight. Temperatures fall back into
the mid to upper 50s with low 50s along the Downeast coast
thanks to the East wind off the colder waters of the Bay of
Fundy.

Tomorrow, the continued strong blocking in the North Atlantic
(-NAO) will slowly given enough for the weakening occluded front
to slowly pivot across Maine barely reaching Central Maine by
afternoon. Along and near the front will feature scattered to
numerous showers. Vort max pivoting around the 500mb low will
bring some dynamically support to the Moosehead Region into the
North Woods near Quebec. A few hundred j/kg of CAPE is likely to
develop and despite mainly cloudy skies on the downwind side of
the Longfellow Mtns (NW side due to SE winds) we could see a
couple lightning strikes with the slightly lower freezing level.
Best chance of rainfall will be in the areas that really need it
due to long term deficits (D0 Drought) in the North Woods to
Moosehead Region. Rainfall amounts here despite it being showery
look to be 0.2-0.5 inch with potentially higher amounts by
sunset. Elsewhere, rainfall tomorrow generally 0.1 inch or less
but more expected into the short term below...High temperatures
tomorrow will be generally in the low to mid 60s across much of
the Central Highlands and Downeast coast. Across far Northeast
Aroostook looks to be the warm spot thanks to the downslope off
the Miramichi Highlands of New Brunswick with highs in the low
to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled, wet weather Fri night to Sunday as an upper trough to
our west slowly approaches the area. Models/ensembles are in
reasonable agreement on the overall wet pattern. Models also
tend to have a first eastern lobe of the upper level low
pressure move through Saturday, with a second lobe moving
through on Sunday. This should bring the highest rain chances
during the day both Saturday and Sunday, making for a very poor
weekend for those with outdoor plans. Thankfully, we are not
concerned about flooding, as rain totals through the weekend
generally look to be in the range of one half to two inches, and
should be spread out between Saturday and Sunday. A few
thunderstorms are possible both Saturday and Sunday, but we are
not expecting any stronger or severe storms as instability is
fairly limited. Low clouds and fog will likely be an issue
especially near the coast and especially in the overnight and
early AM hours. The abundant clouds and showers will keep
temperatures fairly cool, with highs Sat/Sun in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
One more active weather day likely Monday, as the core of the
complex upper trough finally moves through our area. Some model
disagreement begins to enter the picture Monday, so not very
confidence in the amount of shower activity. Tentatively looking
for showers being likely on Monday, mainly in the afternoon,
with a few storms as well.

Tuesday into Thursday, models are in poor agreement on how the
weather pattern evolves. The weather pattern appears to remain
fairly active, but probably not as active as the Friday to
Monday period was. Some models have another trough moving in
mid-week, while others bring us weak high pressure...too early
to say, and playing it safe by sticking close to the National
Blend of Models which goes for a chance of precipitation each
day and temperatures fairly close to average.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Aroostook terminals VFR through late tonight with HUL
diminishing to MVFR after 05z and IFR cigs after 08z.

Downeast terminals experiencing IFR with BHB at LIFR and likely
to remain there into the day Friday. BGR will waver back and
forth between IFR and LIFR into Friday.

SHORT TERM:
Friday Night through Sunday Night... Generally poor aviation
conditions with predominantly IFR in the overnight to mid-
morning hours, and MVFR in the afternoon and evening hours.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are also possible this period.
Winds generally from the south at 10 kts or less.

Monday and Tuesday...
Lower confidence in aviation conditions Mon/Tue, but a greater
probability of VFR than was present over the weekend. Still a
chance of showers or storms Mon/Tue, but again, lower
probabilities over the weekend. Wind generally from the W/NW 10
kts or less.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas mainly below SCA conditions through
tomorrow evening. E-SE winds less than 20kt tonight becoming E
tomorrow. Seas 1-3ft tonight becoming 3-5ft tomorrow. Areas of
fog tonight with showers possible, both expected to reduce vsby.
Tomorrow showers and fog will reduce vsby.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas likely below small craft levels
through Tuesday. However, winds and especially seas will be up a
bit from what has been observed recently, with seas generally
around 4 feet over the weekend, and winds generally 10-15 kts
from a general southerly direction. Also, fog at times will be
an issue over the waters through the weekend, likely improving
early next week as the flow shifts more offshore.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/Sinko
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Buster/Sinko/Foisy
Marine...Buster/Sinko/Foisy