135
FXUS61 KCAR 221916
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
316 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area Thursday, followed by another cold
front on Friday. High pressure then builds in for the weekend.
Low pressure begins to approach from the west Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This Afternoon...
It`s another warm and muggy day. Temperatures have reached 80
for many areas. Dewpoints are generally in the upper 50s to mid
60s and winds are light, making it feel rather uncomfortable.
With weak upper level ridging aloft and little to no forcing
mechanism, so far convection has been very limited, and
presently at 230pm there are only isolated showers. Trimmed
back shower/storm activity with the previous update and will
leave what`s in there. Expect isolated to possibly scattered
activity mainly over central portions of the area, with perhaps
an isolated storm mainly from the Central Highlands east to
Millinocket and Lincoln area. Showers and storms should
dissipate as the sun sets.

Tonight...
Another mild night with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s, coolest
near the coast. The upper level ridge axis moves east of us
overnight, and a very subtle shortwave trough/vort max
approaches from the SW. This should bring increased shower
activity late in the night mainly in the north. With elevated
instability can`t rule out an embedded lightning strike, but not
expecting anything strong. Went with likely PoPs in the north,
with rain totals in the north from 1/4 to 1/2 inch where the
showers do hit late tonight.

Thursday...
The above-mentioned shower/storm activity in the north should
move into New Brunswick by late morning. Then comes a couple
hour lull late morning to midday, before convection fires again
in the warm, muggy airmass. Convection Thursday afternoon will
have more to work with than recent days, with an approaching
upper trough and cold front as a forcing mechanism, and deeper
wind shear (mainly speed shear). SPC has all but the NW part of
the area under a marginal risk, and this seems reasonable. The
cold front will move through the North Woods by about midday,
then east through the rest of the area in the afternoon. All
thunderstorm potential will be just ahead of the cold front as a
broken line of showers and storms. Some question as to when
storms will fire, as this depends on the exact speed of the
front and the dissipation of morning low clouds and resulting
instability. Overall the best risk of stronger storms will be
over eastern portions of the area, with the safest bet being
from about Millinocket and Dover Foxcroft east to Southern
Aroostook and Northern Washington County, and added gusty
winds/small hail to this region. May need to expand the area of
enhanced wording, but don`t have enough confidence for areas
further north or south than this zone, as it`s possible areas
further north won`t have enough instability by the time the
front passes, and areas further south could be too impacted by
the marine layer. Although there won`t be much of a temperature
gradient with the cold froint, we do dry out very rapidly
behind the cold front, with showers and storms ending from west
to east mid to late afternoon.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few showers and a rumble of thunder or two will be possible at
the coast early Thursday evening as the aforementioned cold
front moves through. Otherwise, skies will clear from northwest
to southeast Thursday night as the front moves offshore. Colder
air will be lagging behind the front for the most part. However,
the air mass will be dry enough for lows to drop into the 50s.

Friday will feature a secondary cold front and associated upper
trough approach the area. This will bring in colder air aloft to
Central Highlands northward. Expecting enough instability for
showers to develop along with a few thunderstorms in this area.
Model soundings show freezing levels in the 6000-8000 feet
range. Thus, cannot rule out some small hail or grapuel. The
Bangor region and Downeast will remain dry on Friday due to less
instability. Clouds and showers will keep northern areas in the
lower to mid 70s. More sunshine will allow the Bangor area and
Interior Downeast to see highs near 80 degrees. Cooler
temperatures at the coast once again.

Any showers or storms come to an end by Friday evening as the
cold front moves away. Behind the front, cooler air rushes into
the area, with 850mb temperatures 0C to 3C. That said, expecting
west to northwest winds to be strong enough to prevent
decoupling. Forecasting lows in the 40s in the North, with lower
50s near Bangor and Downeast. If winds drop off more than
expected, some of the coldest spots in the North could drop into
the 30s. High pressure will bring a mostly sunny day on
Saturday. Highs will generally be in the 70s with dew points in
the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry conditions continue through Saturday night with high
pressure beginning to move off. A shortwave could bring a shower
or two on Sunday. Thereafter, models agree on a low pressure
system tracking into the Great Lakes and into Canada from
Monday into midweek. Some timing differences between models,
with the ECMWF somewhat slower than other guidance. Based on
current guidance, chances of rain increase late Monday into
Monday night, continuing on and off through midweek. Potential
exists for significant rainfall as PWATS reach or exceed 1.50
inches for a time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
This Afternoon...VFR areawide. A few isolated showers/storms,
mainly central portions of the area N of BGR and S of PQI. Have
not included any mention in TAFs due to very isolated nature of
activity. Generally light and variable winds this afternoon.

Tonight and Thursday...Starting out VFR early tonight. Likely
remaining VFR through the night for Downeast, including BGR/BHB.
Can`t totally rule out some low clouds from time to time
especially BHB late tonight, but didn`t have enough confidence
to include in TAF. For the north, including areas from HUL N,
reasonably high confidence in a period of IFR ceilings with an
area of showers from roughly 8-13z. Could be an embedded rumble
of thunder, but didn`t put in TAF because not enough confidence.
Generally VFR areawide late morning into the afternoon Thursday.
However, a line of showers/storms is likely in the early to mid
afternoon, progressing from W to E through the area. These
storms could bring briefly gusty winds and MVFR/IFR conditions
before conditions improve to VFR again after approximately 20z.
Winds generally light tonight, become S 5-10 kts Thursday
morning, switching to the SW late afternoon.


SHORT TERM:
Thursday night...Brief MVFR/IFR at coastal terminals early
evening with VCTS and BCFG. Otherwise VFR. Winds WSW 5-10kts.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR possible at Aroostook terminals
in the afternoon with SHRA and VCTS. Winds SW 5-15kts.

Friday night-Saturday Night...Mainly VFR. Winds WNW 5-15kts,
becoming light and variable Saturday night.

Sunday-Sunday Night...Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR possible in VCSH.
Winds SSE 5-10kts.

Monday...VFR lowering to MVFR with -SHRA possible late. Winds SE
5-10kts.



&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions remaining below small craft levels, with
some patchy fog tonight into early Thursday.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria from Thursday night through the weekend. Visibility
could be reduced early Thursday evening with fog before a cold
front moves through. A shower or thunderstorm is possible
Thursday evening with the frontal passage.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Foisy
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Foisy/Clark
Marine...Foisy/Clark