810
FXUS62 KCHS 071109
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
709 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area today. High pressure
will return for the weekend, then another cold front will move
through Monday. The pattern could turn unsettled through mid to
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, the forecast area will be positioned within the
trough south of the upper low situated near the Great Lakes. At
the surface, the day will begin with a front draped across the
central Carolinas and central Georgia. The front is progged to
gradually progress towards the coast, but likely won`t
completely slip offshore until the evening. As the front pushes
through, considerably drier air will arrive and drive dew points
into the upper 50s for areas inland of the immediate coast.
This drier air will also impact the potential for diurnal
convection which should be quite limited this afternoon. Hi-res
model guidance depicts very isolated and weak convection right
along the coast this afternoon, which is where the best low-
level moisture will be centered. Also, surface winds will be
west to west-northwest for most of the day, which is not a wind
direction typically supportive of convection. We have maintained
a small area of isolated showers and thunderstorms down along
the Georgia coast, but do not expect much from this activity.
The severe threat is virtually zero. Despite the front nearby,
temperatures will be quite warm again today. Highs are forecast
to reach the mid 90s just about everywhere.

Tonight: The front will shift offshore and high pressure will
begin to build in across the region. Expect a dry and much
cooler night with the much lower dew points making it feel very
comfortable. Lows are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 60s
away from the immediate coast, with a few low 60s possible in
the typical cool spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Sunday: As a cold front departs offshore early
Saturday, dry surface high pressure will expand across the
entire Southeast. Additionally, the flow aloft will become
nearly zonal with slight building of a low-amplitude ridge over
the eastern Gulf, which will make for a quiet, rain-free
weekend. Skies will be mostly sunny with the exception of some
streaming high level cirrus. Temperatures will continue to run
above normal through the weekend although accompanied with
fairly comfortable dew points in the upper 50s/low 60s. Highs
are expected to warm into the low to mid 90s Saturday and mid to
upper 90s away of the immediate coast Sunday. Overnight lows
will range from the upper 60s inland to low/mid 70s near the
coast Saturday night. Sunday night will be relatively mild with
lows only dipping into the low 70s inland and mid/upper 70s near
the beaches.

Monday: Late Sunday into early Monday, a weak cold front will
push across the area as shortwave energy to the north passes by.
With deep moisture and forcing limited to the north, the
chances for convection will remain very low. We cannot rule out
a stray shower offshore or across the Charleston Tri-County in
the morning, however. As some of the higher dew point air seeps
south, this could allow the afternoon sea breeze to initiate
isolated showers/thunderstorms. Monday will feature another day
in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Daytime shower/thunderstorm chances are looking to return
Tuesday as moisture spreads into the region ahead of the next
system. A stronger/better organized upper level trough could
advance across the Gulf Coast and southeast region during the
middle and latter half of next week bringing deeper moisture and
higher precip chances. Temperatures are forecast to drop back
to near-normal through the long-term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z
Saturdsy.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Overall, VFR conditions will prevail
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: Southwest flow this morning will turn more
southerly this afternoon ahead of the inland front. Then
overnight the front will move offshore and winds will become
northwesterly late. Speeds are expected to peak in the 10-15
knot range, with gusts to 20 knots at times. Overnight, wind
speeds should mostly top out in the 10-15 knot range. Seas will
peak this morning in the 2-4 ft range, decreasing to be 2-3 ft
overnight.

Saturday through Wednesday: Flow will veer northeasterly on
Saturday behind a cold front. However, the pattern will quickly
revert back to the typical southerly/southwesterly flow by
Sunday through the period. Winds will continue to average 15
knots or less with seas 3 feet or less.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...BRM
LONG TERM...BRM
AVIATION...BSH/BRM
MARINE...BSH/BRM