040
FXUS62 KCHS 030201
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1001 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is expected to move into the area today and could
then linger along or just off the coast through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: Aloft, h5 shortwave energy will continue to support
scattered showers/thunderstorms across inland areas within a
warm/moist environment occurring ahead of an approaching cold front.
A few stronger thunderstorms and/or isolated severe thunderstorm
remain possible with damaging wind gusts being the primary concern
through about midnight. Additionally, deep moisture characterized by
PWATs around 2 inches along with slower storm motions, generally
around 10 mph, could lead to heavier rains in a few locations, and
the potential for Flood Advisories. After midnight, deep convection
across Southeast Georgia and Southeast South Carolina should
wane/dissipate, although some shower activity may linger over the
adjacent Atlantic waters late tonight. Low temperatures are forecast
to range from near 70 inland to the mid-upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The surface front is expected to remain stalled along the coast
on Thursday. Weak shortwave energy will be moving off the coast
in the morning, with mainly weak NVA over the area. PWs will
remain fairly high, particularly along the coast, with slightly
drier air moving into inland areas. Close to 2000 J/kg CAPE
expected to develop during the afternoon with highs in the low
90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Scattered showers and tstms
expected to develop in the afternoon with the greatest coverage
closer to the coast mid to late afternoon. Quite a bit of
coverage could continue into the early to mid evening including
locally heavy rainfall and numerous cloud to ground lightning
strikes.

Slightly drier air will overspread the area on Friday with the
surface front a bit farther off the coast. However, there should
still be a moderate sea breeze in the afternoon and enough
instability to support scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon/evening.

Slightly drier high pressure will move into inland SC on
Saturday. However, a potential tropical or subtropical low may
develop well off the SC/GA coast and start moving northwest.
This could bring increasing coverage of showers and tstms to
coastal areas later in the day though the confidence is very low
due to large model uncertainties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main concern for this period continues to be the possibility
that low pressure will develop off the SC/GA coast and then move
NW or N toward the area. NHC currently has a 40% chance for
tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. The 12Z GFS and
ECMWF are showing increasing chances of development. Even if
tropical development doesn`t occur, Saturday night through
Sunday could be relatively wet, particularly along the coast.

Upper ridging heading into the middle of next week should bring
increasing temperatures and heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through
Thursday morning, although there are some indications that
stratus develops over the terminals late night, with MVFR cigs
becoming a possibility between the 08-14Z Thursday time frame.
Showers and thunderstorms are also forecast to develop across
coastal areas Thursday afternoon and could cause additional
flight restrictions. VCTS groups have been introduced to
CHS/JZI from 18-23Z Thursday and to SAV from 19-23Z Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions will be
possible with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The sfc pattern should yield southerly winds generally
between 10-15 kts. This evening, a slight gradient pinch may
yield a period of gusts around 20 kts late this evening. Seas
are forecast to range between 2 to 3 ft.

Winds/seas expected to remain below advisory criteria Thursday
through Sunday. The only caveat is the possibility of a
tropical or subtropical low developing off the GA/SC coast on
Saturday that could affect the waters Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL