863
FXUS62 KCHS 061828
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
228 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Chantal will weaken as it tracks north
across eastern North Carolina tonight. Weak high pressure will
then rebuild across the area and prevail through the upcoming
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Visible satellite loop show TD Chantal tracking north across NC this
afternoon. Arcing thick bands of clouds around the system will
likely continue to pass over the forecast area into early this
evening. In addition, KCLX detected an expanding area of showers
over the I-26 corridor, track towards the coast. The combination of
the cloud cover, WNW winds, and rounds of rainfall should limit
heating to an additional 1-2 degrees. Temperatures across extreme SE
GA are on pace to peak between in the low to mid 90s.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicated SBCAPE will range around 500 J/kg
with the FZL around 16.5 kft. The convection should primarily remain
as showers, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Convection is
forecast to gradually dissipate across the region this evening,
especially inland after sunset. Low temperatures are forecast to
range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The region will be observing a slowly strengthening ridge axis over
the southeastern CONUS, with the remnants of TD Chantal continuing
to move well north of the region into Tuesday. This will usher in a
fairly standard summer pattern to start off the work week, with
daily highs in the lower to mid 90s and 20-30 percent chances for
scattered showers in the afternoon, mostly along a sea-breeze.
Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest as the aforementioned
ridge strengthens, with the NBM bringing dewpoints in a touch
lower than they have been. This has resulted in heat index
values remaining below heat advisory criteria, though it will
still be warm and moist. Wednesday will likely see an increase
in mid-level moisture as the ridge weakens aloft, which should
increase cloud coverage ahead of more widespread showers and
thunderstorms along the sea- breeze. While shear remains weak
and there is a lack of strong forcing, chances for severe
weather remain low through Wednesday, though given 1000-2000
J/kg of CAPE the chances are non-zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak flow with upper level ridging aloft continues into the weekend,
resulting in normal summertime conditions. Max temperatures in the
90s, overnight lows in the 70s, with diurnally driven
scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prior to the 18Z TAFs, KCLX detected a band of light showers
across the I-26 corridor, tracking towards the coast. These
showers may pass over KCHS and KJZI between 19-23Z, highlighted
with TEMPOs. In the meantime, MVFR ceilings across KCHS and KJZI
may linger through much of this afternoon. As TD Chantal weakens
and tracks well north of the region this evening, restrictive
ceilings should dissipate and winds should shift from the SW.
Conditions overnight into Monday morning are forecast to remain
VFR with SW winds between 5 to 10 kts.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief ceiling/vsby restrictions possible
Monday through Thursday due to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight, the marine zones will remain between departing TD Chantal
over eastern NC and broad high pressure over the Bahamas. This
pattern will support southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts tonight.
Seas should remain between 3-5 ft this evening, then 3-4 ft by late
tonight.

Monday through Friday: No marine concerns/headlines expected
throughout the week. Winds start out of the southwest each morning,
becoming southerly and breezy throughout the day sustained mid to
upper teens with gusts into the upper teens to lower 20s. Wave
heights of 2 to 4 feet expected.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk for rip currents exists for all
area beaches today due to residual swell. Lingering swell will
result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents for the
Charleston County beaches on Monday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...APT
LONG TERM...APT
AVIATION...APT/NED
MARINE...APT/NED