Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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268 FXUS61 KCLE 161040 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 640 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and New England today will gradually weaken and move east tonight and Tuesday to allow a tropical low to move from the Carolinas into the Appalachians. This weakening low will reach the Ohio Valley by Wednesday before gradually exiting east Thursday to allow high pressure to build in by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 6:30 AM Update... The forecast remains on track this morning with no changes needed. The area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina is still being identified as potential tropical cyclone 8 by the NHC as of their 5 AM discussion. This could become a tropical storm today, with very minor impacts for our southeastern counties starting late Tuesday. See details below. Original Discussion... Quiet and very pleasant weather will continue today and Tuesday as the strong mid/upper ridge of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and New England that has been remarkably persistent gradually weakens and drifts eastward. Southeasterly flow around the slowly departing ridge axis will allow a tropical depression/likely tropical storm to move northwestward and make landfall in South Carolina this evening before gradually turning northward and moving into the Mid Atlantic and Appalachians by late Tuesday. The spiral bands of rain will fight abundant amounts of dry air over the Ohio Valley, and the remnant circulation is likely to slow down by Tuesday night as ridging strengthens to the north across the Great Lakes, so slowed down the onset of shower chances Tuesday afternoon. With this being said, have slight chance PoPs gradually expanding into eastern Ohio and western PA, generally west of I-77 late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most areas will not see more than a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of rain since the bands will be narrow given the drier air. The better chances for some rain will hold off until Tuesday night and Wednesday. The main impact tonight and Tuesday will just be increasing high and mid- level cloud cover from east to west after another mostly sunny Monday. Highs in the low/mid 80s today will cool slightly into the upper 70s/low 80s Tuesday. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s to around 60. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The short term period will mark the first potential of any precipitation for the area in a while. A low pressure system over the southeastern US (currently dubbed Tropical Cyclone 8 by NHC) will gradually move north, potentially impacting the area Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Models are in a general consensus that Wednesday will be the best chance to see any precipitation, however the exact timing remains a bit uncertain as models diverge in agreement on how this low will interact with the dominant high that has remained over the northeastern states. With the current forecast track of this system, the eastern portion of the CWA is the most likely to see any rainfall, which will not be ideal for the D2 drought conditions across northwest Ohio. Will have to continue to monitor this system, but remaining cautiously optimistic that the area will see any appreciable precipitation. With increasing cloud cover associated with this system expected to spread across the area, high temperatures on Wednesday will be a bit cooler, only reaching into the mid to upper 70s. Remnants of the aforementioned low will linger in the region on Thursday, but with an upper level ridge nosing northeast into the area, this system will push further east of the area and any lingering precipitation should end by Thursday evening and remain dry through the overnight hours. Highs on Thursday will climb into the mid to upper 70s again with skies gradually clearing from west to east. Overnight lows throughout the period will drop into the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... By Friday, a dry airmass returns to the area as an upper level ridge again becomes dominant across the region. This will present another period of dry conditions, mostly sunny skies, and another climb to above average temperatures through the weekend. Highs will climb into at least the low 80s for much of the area with overnight lows remaining in the mid to upper 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... VFR will continue through the TAF period as high pressure remains in control. Light SE winds this morning will turn NE at 5-10 knots this afternoon in northwest and north central Ohio and along the lakeshore. The winds will likely stay SE over interior NE Ohio around KCAK and KYNG. All winds will return to SE late this evening through tonight while becoming light again. Outlook...VFR expected through Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system will approach the region from the southeast and bring non-VFR conditions Tuesday night into Thursday, but expect VFR conditions to return by Friday. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the region to start the week with a very similar pattern compared to the last couple days expected. Winds this morning will start out from the southeast at 5-10 knots before becoming northeasterly at 10-15 knots this afternoon. This will allow waves to build to 1-3 feet, but not expecting any headlines needed. This exact pattern is expected to repeat itself on Tuesday. Tuesday night, a low pressure system over the southeastern US is expected to begin to move north, allowing for winds to become sustained from the east-northeast at 5-10 knots. A chance of precipitation returns to the forecast on Tuesday and winds will increase to 10-15 knots, allowing waves to build to 1-3 feet across the central and western basins. On Thursday, another upper level ridge pushes east and end any chance of showers. The positioning of the area under this ridge will allow for winds to remain sustained from the northeast at 5-10 knots through Friday night before becoming more southeasterly for the weekend. Not expecting any marine headlines at this time. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Garuckas NEAR TERM...Garuckas SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Campbell