492
FXUS61 KCLE 130735
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
335 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits east through today before a cold front enters
from the west late tonight into Friday. High pressure builds back
over the region for the weekend before building east on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Departing high pressure and southwesterly flow will bring one last
dry and hot day to the region. High temperatures this afternoon rise
into the mid to upper 80s with near 90 degree temperatures along the
I-75 corridor. Dry weather ends tonight as an upper trough and
accompanying surface cold front enter the region. Low pressure
centered over Quebec will slowly drag this cold front across
Northern Ohio overnight tonight. Given the timing of the frontal
passage, upstream severe weather across Southern Michigan and
Indiana will likely weaken as we lose daytime heating with the
severe weather threat for our area conditional on the
thermodynamic environment. For now, portions of Northwest Ohio
remain in a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather tonight.
Overnight lows settle generally in the mid 60s tonight.

Upper trough and shortwave aloft will slowly exit the region through
the day on Friday and will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in
the forecast through Friday afternoon. Another area of high pressure
and a much drier air mass will move in place from the northwest
by the end of the near term period. Near to slightly below
normal high temperatures are expected on Friday behind the cold
front and as winds turn northerly. Highs will range from the
low to mid 70s across Northwest Pennsylvania and Northeast Ohio
to the low to mid 80s across western zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is in for a significant pattern
change that will take place during the short term forecast period.
Upper level trough exits to the east Saturday with one last day of
temperatures largely in the 70s with a few lower 80s across the CWA.
500mb heights begin to build over the southern Appalachians with
return surface flow as high pressure from Saturday exits the mid
Atlantic coast Sunday. 850mb temperatures on the rise during this
time frame, and temperatures Sunday will run about 10 degrees warmer
with 80s and lower 90s making an appearance in the western zones of
the CWA. Pretty much a dry period as well with no organized
convection or precipitation in the vicinity of the area. Saturday
will also see the last of the dewpoints in the 50s for likely some
time to come as they surge well into the 60s Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The incoming airmass and pattern that favors stout ridging aloft
with 500mb heights in the 590s and 850mb temperatures over 20C will
become a dominant feature for the CWA heading into the long term and
likely beyond for at least a couple of days. Dewpoints well into the
upper 60s to lower 70s and temperatures consistently in the lower to
upper 90s will make things rather uncomfortable with the first heat
wave of meteorological summer. Long range operational models showing
that the ridge aloft will hold its grip on the area for the
foreseeable future. Rain chances in the long term will be very low,
if any, and do not see any organized system moving through. The dry
ground will make heating a bit more efficient as we go through
successive days without precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period as high pressure
continues to build east today. Mostly clear skies today as the
high continues to influence our region with high level clouds
moving overhead from the northwest late in the TAF period. A
cold front will approach western terminals near the end of the
TAF period which will bring a dying line of showers and
thunderstorms to terminals in Northwest Ohio late tonight,
roughly around 00Z. For now, have VCSH for terminals west of
I-71.

South winds 5-10 knots will increase to 12-15 knots with gusts
to 18-23 knots mainly west of I-71 this afternoon. Wind speeds
diminish below 10 knots late tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds today become northerly around 10kts late tonight
into Friday with the passage of a cold front across Lake Erie
tonight. Wave heights to around 2ft late Friday through early
Saturday before high pressure moves to the east and turns winds
easterly 5-10kts. Wave heights subside to 1-2ft for the western
basin and less than a foot for the central and eastern basins
Saturday. After Saturday, expect offshore southerly winds and wave
heights less than a foot in the nearshore waters and 1-2ft in the
open waters into early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...26