579
FXUS61 KCLE 090536
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
136 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure and associated cold front will move east across
the area tonight into Sunday morning. A secondary cold front will
move east on Sunday night before high pressure returns for the start
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
915 PM Update...
Some echoes appearing near the western basin of Lake Erie and
inland, but likely not seeing much reaching the ground yet with
cloud bases still around 6-7kft. Rain will be moving in from the
northwest over the next few hours with a cold front that will be
coming through the region. Some thunder possible, but mostly
showers on the front end at least, and looking at around a
quarter to half inch of rainfall.

Previous Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move along the edge of a broader upper level
trough tonight into Sunday morning. An associated weak surface low
will track east across the southern Great Lakes region dragging a
cold front east across the CWA. With fairly weak forcing and a
diurnally unfavorable environment, not expecting much past a few
rumbles of thunder with these showers. By late Sunday morning, many
of the showers should move east of the area, leaving a lingering
surface trough. This surface trough and northwest winds may result
in scattered lake enhanced showers in the typical snowbelt area late
afternoon into the evening hours before a weak, secondary cold front
pushes across the area and enhances the shower potential Sunday
night.

Overnight lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 50s, but
behind the departing cold front will be much cooler Sunday night
when temperatures drop into the upper 40s to low 50s. High
temperatures on Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A positively tilted upper-level trough will be overhead on Monday,
with some isolated, light rain showers lingering downwind of Lake
Erie in parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. This
will mainly be in the morning when there is a 20% PoP. Temperatures
will be below normal by 10-15 degrees with highs ranging to around
70 in Northwest Ohio to around 60 in Northwest Pennsylvania and
overnight lows in the 40s. High pressure gradually builds in by
Tuesday night with temperatures increasing by 5-10 degrees across
the board.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure moves off to the east, with southerly flow developing
on the backside. This should build back in the warmth, with
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s by Thursday/Friday (except
Northwest Pennsylvania in the low 80s). An upper-level trough builds
into the Great Lakes region, with best timing for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. It`s not great forcing though
and there isn`t a ton of moisture so PoPs only reside in the 20-30%
range for now. Temperatures trend a bit cooler on Saturday
though still a few degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Conditions will start off this early morning with lower end
MVFR to pockets of IFR ceilings. Later this morning through the
rest of the TAF period into this evening, VFR conditions will
return. There is a cold front moving through the area at this
time. There are scattered rain showers that will impact CLE,
YNG, and ERI through about 09z this morning which may bring down
visibility to 5sm at times. Ceilings should start lifting and
scattered out around sunrise this morning and from west to east.
High and mid level VFR ceilings may return late this afternoon
into the overnight. Winds will shift from the west to northwest
early this morning 8 to 12 knots. Winds will further increase to
around 15 knots late this morning through the afternoon with
gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will relax to 10 knots or less after
00z this evening from the west.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings may return late Sunday night into
Monday as a weak boundary moves across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak low and associated cold front move across Lake Erie later
this evening. In its wake, northeast to northwest winds of 10 to 15
knots develop. There may be about 2-3 hour window sometime between 9
PM and 2 AM tonight where 20 knot (maybe even isolated 25 knot)
winds will be possible. Because there`s some uncertainty (about 50%
of model guidance has 20+ knot winds) and there short duration, did
not issue a small craft advisory or beach hazard statement. Winds
become northwest late tonight, early tomorrow with speeds of around
10 to 15 knots. Winds then become west to southwest in advanced of
an approaching trough during the day Sunday before becoming
northwest again Sunday evening/night. CAMs have a fairly sporadic
and uneven wind field with periods of at least 20 knot winds, and
waves of around 4 feet will likely lead to the need of a small craft
advisory at some point for Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
Northwest winds continue through Monday night, with a low chance for
small craft advisory conditions in the central basin on Monday. High
pressure builds in, with quiet conditions on Lake Erie Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/26
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Saunders