666
FXUS61 KCLE 121350
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
950 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to glide toward the East Coast today
through Thursday. Low pressure centered over Quebec will drag a
cold front east Thursday night into Friday. High pressure builds
back over the region for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9:45 AM Update...
No major changes made to the forecast.

Previous discussion...
High level clouds will continue to move eastward across the
region as a shortwave aloft crosses overhead. Dry low to mid
levels reestablish late this morning and afternoon and will
allow for skies to clear out as high pressure remains overhead.
Can`t rule out the development of a lake breeze this afternoon
for Cleveland and points east along the lakeshore. Highs today
will rise near to slightly above normal in the mid 70s across
Northwest Pennsylvania, upper 70s to lower 80s across North
Central and Northeast Ohio, and mid 80s along the I-75 corridor.
Overnight lows tonight will settle up to 5- 10 degrees above
normal in the mid to upper 60s. Our hottest day of the week
comes Thursday as high temperatures soar into the upper 80s to
lower 90s under strong WAA. Dew points will also rise into the
upper 50s to lower 60s by Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold
front that will approach late Thursday. More on the front,
shower and thunderstorm chances, and severe weather potential
below in the short term forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes region Thursday
night into early Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front will
slide southeastward through the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio
Valley region late Thursday night. The latest model guidance is
showing a slight uptick in thermodynamic potential for a couple
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms that could develop late
Thursday evening over northwest Ohio and western Lake Erie. A narrow
corridor of modest instability could materialize ahead of the
approaching cold front Thursday evening. High resolution forecast
models soundings show MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg with 0-6km
shear up to 50 knots. Scattered convection will develop along and
head of the frontal boundary. There could be a limited risk for a
storm or two to have large hail and damaging wind gusts across
northwest Ohio before the convection starts to weaken during the
overnight hours as it moves across northern Ohio and NWPA. SPC
currently has a day 2 marginal outlook outlined for NWOH Thursday
evening.

The cold front will be slowly push southward early Friday morning.
There could be some lingering showers or isolated thunder over
eastern and central Ohio Friday morning before high pressure builds
in from the north. High temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler
Friday afternoon in the middle 70s for NWPA and NEOH and the lower
80s over NWOH. High pressure will continue to build in right on top of
northern Ohio and the eastern Great Lakes region on Saturday with
sunny skies and nice weather. High temps on Saturday will range for
the middle 70s for NWPA/NEOH and low 80s again for NWOH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The high pressure system will move off towards New England on
Sunday. We will see a return southerly flow begin later in the
weekend. Upper level heights will rise with a ridge moving in over
the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Temperatures at 850mb will increase to 18-
20C by Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will climb into the
middle 80s over NWPA and upper 80s for NEOH. Lower 90s will be
possible over NWOH by Sunday afternoon.

A large summertime ridge of high pressure will develop and build
over the eastern CONUS by early next week. The center of this upper
level ridge will be near the Carolinas by Monday. We will see 850mb
temperatures increase to 20-22C by Monday and Tuesday with the
potential for a little heatwave developing. Afternoon high
temperatures may be easily reach in the lower and middle 90s early
next week. Heat indices may approach the upper 90s to around 100
degrees. Given the heat building, increased humidity, and possible
interactions with afternoon lake breezes, there could be a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon Monday
through Wednesday. We kept the POPs around 20 percent during the
midday through early evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
High pressure will allow for VFR conditions to persist through
the period. Broken to overcast high level clouds continue to
move east across terminals this morning before clear skies
return this afternoon.

Anticipate southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots through tonight
before decreasing below 5 knots and turn southerly. High
pressure over the region will allow for a lake breeze to develop
this afternoon at CLE and ERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered showers Thursday night
into early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will slowly shift eastward today and a light southerly
flow will return. Southwest winds of 10 knots or less are expected
today. A lake breeze will be possible late this afternoon and
evening given the weak offshore flow today. South to southwest winds
will increase on Thursday up to 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon
ahead of a cold front that will move through Thursday night. Winds
will shift from the north around 10 knots behind the front Friday.
High pressure will build into the region Friday and Saturday will a
light flow over the lake. A light south to southeast wind flow up to
10 knots will return on Sunday. No headlines are expected on the
lake at this time through the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Griffin