862
FXUS61 KCLE 190531
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
131 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure persists over the region through this
week. Widespread near-record temperatures will be possible across
the area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop each
day. Low pressure arrives near the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM Update...
Slight adjustments were again made to temperatures to account
for showers and thunderstorms lowering temperatures. Aside from
that, overnight lows are still expected to fall into the upper
60s to low 70s and no other changes were needed.

630 PM Update...
Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across the area this
evening, producing locally heavy rainfall. As the sun continues
to set, showers should end and leave the area dry for tonight.
Only update made was to temperatures to reflect the much cooler
temperatures in areas where it had rained today. Also updated
the dewpoint temperatures to reflect observations. No other
changes were needed with this update as the hot, humid forecast
remains on track.

Previous Discussion...
Ridge of high pressure remains in place over much of the eastern
CONUS through the near term and into the rest of week. This will
allow for continued heat across the region with high temperatures in
the 90s and heat indices each afternoon in the upper 90s to
lower 100s. No changes were made to the heat headlines with this
update and a Heat Advisory remains in effect through the near
term period.

Thunderstorms that popped up this afternoon will continue to
decrease in coverage and intensity this evening as we lose daytime
heating. Rinse and repeat day tomorrow with temperatures rising
into the 90s accompanied by dew points in the upper 60s to lower
70s. This will once again allow for MLCAPE values to rise to
2000+ J/kg by Wednesday afternoon coupled with DCAPE values in
the 900-1200 J/kg range. This will lead to another afternoon of
pop up convection with wet downbursts possible to develop
across Northeast Ohio for Wednesday. Additionally, above average
PWAT values approaching 2 inches (PIT 90th percentile is 1.5
inches) and slow cloud layer wind speed (<10 kt) may lead to
instances of flash flooding again tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A piece of energy is expected to round the upper level ridge north
of Lake Erie on Wednesday night as low pressure moves into northern
Quebec. A weak cold front does settle south to near Lake Erie but is
expected to stall somewhere across northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania. Thursday and Friday are still expected to be hot, but
winds shifting to the north late Thursday and continuing on Friday
may provide some minimal relief to mainly northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Inland highs are still expected to be in the
mid to upper 90s while lakeshore areas may top out in the upper 80s.
Heat index values still expected to range from the upper mid 90s to
near 100 except may be closer to 90 near the lakeshore with enhanced
lake breezes contributing to some relief. Scattered thunderstorms
remain possible ahead of and along the cold front on Thursday and
near the stalled boundary on Friday. With continued hot and humid
conditions and some frontal forcing, can not rule out the potential
for a few strong storms again with locally heavy rain possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The boundary lifts back north as a warm front on Saturday as low
pressure moves east across the Upper Great Lakes. Temperatures warm
several degrees again on Saturday and may need to extend the Heat
Advisory another day for at least a portion of the forecast area.
Saturday night is likely to be quite warm in NW Ohio with continued
southwest flow overnight. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front on Sunday
afternoon, especially for areas along and east of I-71.

A break from the heat will finally come behind the cold front on
Monday as high temperatures on Monday settle into the mid 70s to mid
80s with much lower humidity. A break in the active weather is also
expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. The
break from the heat will tend to be short lived as we trend warmer
again by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Using PROB30 again for this 06Z issuance while able to do so and
expect more diurnal heating isolated to scattered thunderstorms
with towering cumulus in the area as well, and time it for the
mid afternoon/early evening hours. Gusts in the PROB30 groups to
30kts possible in storms. Decaying convection in the evening,
and leftover high level clouds into the overnight after 00Z
Thursday. Outside of thunderstorm activity, surface winds SSW
less than 10kts.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Friday. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms and non-VFR conditions are possible
again Thursday and Friday afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally good marine conditions expected to persist on Lake Erie
through Saturday with afternoon lake breezes. Winds will generally
be less than 15 knots except with scattered thunderstorms which
could produce strong to severe winds. A cold front is forecast to
cross Lake Erie on Sunday with southwest winds of 10-20 knots ahead
of the front on Sunday and northwest winds of near 15 knots Sunday
night into Monday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for a window
of time later Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on
several days. The records for Tuesday, June 18 to Friday, June
21 are listed below for our official climate sites.

Date   Toledo     Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
06-19  98(1995)    94(1994)   92(1995)    94(1994)   94(1994)    92(1931)
06-20  98(1953)    94(1988)   96(1988)    95(1933)   95(1933)    92(2016)
06-21  100(2022)   96(1988)   95(2022)    97(1933)   98(1933)    95(1933)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-
     027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Iverson
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...26
MARINE...KEC
CLIMATE...