947
FXUS64 KCRP 230335
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1035 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Isolated showers continue this afternoon along a line from
Nueces/Kleberg Counties west to Webb County. No lightning has
occurred with any of the showers so far today, though an isolated
bolt cannot be ruled out. We should see a break in precipitation
this evening into early tonight before additional isolated showers
and storms develop late tonight into Sunday. These are associated
with the Tropical Disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, which has a
40% chance of development through the weekend.

The system remains rather disorganized and the vast majority of the
impacts will remain south of our region. We could possible see some
increased swells - in addition to the isolated showers/storms - but
the Lower Rio Grande Valley is where the heaviest rain will occur.

Elevated water levels continue today, but we are down to advisory
level tides throughout the Coastal Bend. The Coastal Flood Advisory
will continue through Sunday, along with the high risk of rip
currents.

Temperatures will continue to be near normal for this time of year
(upper 80s/low-90s) with heat indices getting back into the low
100s Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts.

- Minor coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents will likely
continue into early next week.

A mid to upper level high pressure is forecast to be across the
region Monday with a weak short wave tracking west around the
southern periphery of the high pressure. This will maintain a low to
medium (20-50%) chance of convection. The best chance will be across
the southern Coastal Bend to southern Rio Grande Plains due to
proximity to deeper moisture and the short wave. Rain chances
decrease Tuesday through Thursday with the ridge providing more
subsidence and drier mid/upper levels over S TX. There still remains
a low (<20%) chance of convection due to moisture in the lower
levels with PWATs ranging from 1.7-2.0 inches.

Models prog another inverted trough to approach S TX by the end of
the week, but differ on timing and amount of available moisture.
Will continue with a low (<20%) chance of convection into next
weekend.

A gradual warming trend combined with a humid airmass will lead to
increasing heat related impacts, especially by the end of the work
week and into next weekend. Heat indices could reach 110 in a few
spots Mon-Thu, but should generally be less than 110 most areas.
Heat indices of 110-114 become more widespread and last more than a
couple of hours by Friday with Heat Advisories possible.

The risk of rip currents will remain high and minor coastal flooding
will likely continue into next week, but is forecast to continue to
gradually subside.  The latest PETSS shows tide levels at Aransas
Pass up to 2ft MSL (1ft inundation) during times of high tide
through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

MVFR ceilings will develop across the inland coastal plains after
midnight with a few showers possible late as moisture on the
northern fringe of the gulf disturbance moves into the area. Radar
is already picking up on these showers advancing within 20nm of
the coast.  Threat for showers/isolated storms will increase
Sunday morning, especially across the central and western
terminals from CRP-LRD. Precipitation should become more isolated
by Sunday afternoon as the moisture associated with the
disturbance moves west. VFR conditions with light onshore winds
will prevail Sunday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the weekend as a
disturbance passes through the Bay of Campeche. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight into tomorrow. Expect
mainly a weak to moderate onshore flow to persist Monday through Friday
of next week. There is a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and
thunderstorms Monday, followed by a low (15-25%) chance for showers
through mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  90  79  92 /  30  50  10  30
Victoria          74  92  76  92 /   0  30   0  30
Laredo            76  92  77  94 /  20  60  20  30
Alice             75  91  75  93 /  20  50  10  30
Rockport          80  91  81  92 /  30  40  10  20
Cotulla           75  94  78  97 /   0  30  10  10
Kingsville        77  90  78  92 /  40  60  10  40
Navy Corpus       81  89  82  90 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ245-342>347-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...JM/75