Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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399 FXUS64 KCRP 180755 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 255 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Ridging will settle over the region through the short-term period leading to subsidence across the area. PWAT values are progged to gradually decline from 1.9-2.0" this morning to around 1.6-1.8" by Thursday afternoon, which is around the 75th percentile for this time of year. With enough moisture still lingering around (mainly in the lower levels), have maintained some low end PoPs in the forecast (<20%) for today and tomorrow, as a few showers/storms may still be possible. The activity is expected to start during the morning hours over the marine zones, before transitioning inland with the sea breeze. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, and a few more on Thursday. Highs will generally range from the upper 80s along the coast to the upper 90s out west both days. Heat index values are forecast to peak at 110 degrees across portions of the Coastal Plains today, but I`m not anticipating it to last long enough to grant an Advisory. Having said that, will pass a note to the day shift to see how the day trends, in case an Advisory is actually required. On Thursday, Advisory conditions are a bit more likely, and will need to be re-evaluated in later packages. The HeatRisk will be at mostly Moderate levels today, and at Moderate to Major on Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s to low 80s range. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Overall, not much change with this long term forecast update. Upper level ridging will remain in place as we head into the weekend. Sufficient low level moisture will allow for low chances of showers and thunderstorms daily (15-20%), generally along the sea breeze. As we head through the weekend, a stout upper level low will dive south towards the Desert Southwest and eject across the Plains Sunday into Monday. This upper low will kick a cold front south across the state. Unfortunately, it looks to remain well north of the region. We will need to keep an eye on the potential for minor coastal flooding over the weekend. Gerling-Hanson plots reveal a secondary and tertiary wave system with 9-10s periods. PETSS guidance hints at tides nearing 2ft MSL during high tide this weekend. Confidence is not too high at this time but it is worth monitoring. High temps through the long term look to top out in the 90s with lows dipping into the 70s. Heat indices on Friday look to settle into the 105-109 range, promoting a moderate to major heat risk. Over the weekend and into next week, our max heat indices drop to around 100-105, providing a minor to moderate heat risk. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 955 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 With little change in the forecast pattern, expect we will still experience fog in the morning as we have in the past few mornings. Model guidance has not handled this well over the last few days so, based on persistence, have continued TEMPO groups for IFR/LIFR fog for VCT and ALI from 11Z-15Z. For the same reasoning, have included MVFR ceilings for CRP, LRD, and VCT in the morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Weak to at times moderate onshore flow will continue into early next week. There is a low (15-25%) chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. An approaching upper level disturbance will lead to a low to medium (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 78 93 77 / 10 10 10 0 Victoria 95 75 95 74 / 10 0 10 0 Laredo 96 78 97 77 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 95 76 95 75 / 20 0 10 0 Rockport 92 79 92 79 / 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 98 78 99 77 / 0 0 10 0 Kingsville 94 77 95 76 / 20 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 89 80 89 80 / 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM/88 LONG TERM....TC/95 AVIATION...LS