844
FXUS64 KCRP 201120
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
620 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major heat risk today

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals upper level ridging
anchored across the region. At the surface, patchy fog is beginning
to develop across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Any
fog that develops will clear out shortly after sunrise.
Sufficient moisture in place will warrant a 20-30% chance of
showers and storms today. Streamers showers are expected through
the morning hours with activity spreading inland along the sea
breeze. Any storms that develop will be capable of heavy rain and
gusty winds. However, they should be short-lived due to lack of
shear. Convection will wane through the evening hours as we lose
daytime heating.

Light and variable winds tonight will promote another round of
patchy fog across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads early
Saturday morning. A similar story is in store on Saturday as the
upper ridge remains in control. Isolated sea breeze showers and
storms will move inland during the late morning and afternoon hours.

High temperatures will settle into the 90s today along with heat
indices in the 105-109 range. This will promote a moderate to major
heat risk. A few locations may briefly reach 110 but not for long
enough to warrant a Heat Advisory.

Lastly, bumped up the rip current risk to moderate both today and
tomorrow. Swells have been ranging from 9-12s at buoys 19 and 20.
However, swell heights have been less than a foot. Gerling-Hanson
plots suggest a secondary wave system will keep these increased
swells around so felt confident enough to upgrade the risk. We will
continue to monitor our tides as we head into our next high tide
cycle (346 AM at Port Aransas). Tides are running roughly 0.5`
above normal so it doesn`t appear that we will reach criteria but
we will keep an eye on local webcams and obs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Key Message:

- Minor to Moderate Risk for heat related impacts next week

Expect the upper level ridge currently over the region to gradually
track to the east early next week as a mid to upper level trough
digs around the Four Corners region. This is expected to eject a
cold front into Texas that will stall to our north. Moisture will
begin pooling along the front which will combine with the sea breeze
to allow for a low to medium chance (20-40%) for showers and
thunderstorms daily through the end of the week.

In terms of high temperatures, unfortunately it will continue to
remain hot through the remainder of the long term. Highs will climb
to the 90s daily with heat indices around 105 across the region.
Given the conditions there will be a minor to moderate risk for heat
related impacts.

The National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor a broad area
of low pressure that has now a 40% chance of development over the
next 7 days. Currently they are messaging that a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week. Continue to check back for
future updates and make sure that you are prepared
(www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

MVFR/IFR fog and ceilings have developed across the Coastal
Plains and Victoria Crossroads this morning. Brief periods of LIFR
can`t be ruled out, generally at ALI. VFR conditions return by
14/15Z along with southeasterly winds around 10 knots. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are once again expected along the sea
breeze late this morning through the afternoon hours at ALI/CRP.
Some activity may make it out to COT/LRD but confidence is low at
this time. Another round of MVFR/IFR conditions are expected
Saturday morning as winds become light overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue into next week. A
20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms today through the
weekend will increase to a 30-60% chance next week as a cold front
stalls north of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  77  90  76 /  30  10  20   0
Victoria          96  74  93  73 /  10   0  10   0
Laredo            96  77  95  76 /  20  10  10   0
Alice             95  77  93  73 /  30  10  20   0
Rockport          93  79  92  79 /  10   0  10  10
Cotulla           98  78  95  76 /  30  10  10   0
Kingsville        93  77  91  75 /  30  10  20   0
Navy Corpus       88  81  88  80 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...TC/95