Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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514 FXUS64 KCRP 011220 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 720 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Key Messages: -Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms today -High Risk of rip currents today through Sunday Some Gulf moisture is expected to ride around the ridge this morning combining with a disturbance that is moving across the Central Plains. Models are depicting the environment being somewhat favorable for isentropic lift to occur at the 305K level. This will allow for a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms this morning. This should clear by midday and give way to warm high temperatures across the area. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s to lower 100s out west with heat indices around 110. Cloud cover will potentially work against the high temperatures, thus negating the need for a Heat Advisory today. Guidance is hinting at potential MCS developing sometime this afternoon around the mountainous area of Mexico and tracking eastwards towards the CWA. There are discrepancies in the intensity and timing regarding this potential MCS therefore confidence is remaining low at this time. SPC has put the northern portions of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) to account for this potential. Conditions dry out Sunday with the potential for Heat Advisory conditions returning due to less cloud cover and high dew points. Due to the presence of elevated winds and seas and expectation for this to persist through tomorrow, a High Risk for rip currents will exist for this period. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Key Messages: - Major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts through the middle of the week - Hurricane season kicks off today, June 1. No significant changes were made with this long term forecast update as upper level ridging looks to remain in control. With that said, on Monday, a shortwave ejecting across the Southern Plains may suppress the ridge just enough to allow some pockets of vorticity to rotate through the region. If this scenario were to materialize, we could see some convection fire up across the Rio Grande and move our way. Confidence is not too high in this outcome so only have a slight chance mentioned Monday evening, mainly across the Brush Country. In the wake of that shortwave, a stout upper ridge builds across the Desert Southwest as a longwave trough digs into the Midwest. A cold front will be sent south across much of the eastern CONUS late next week but looks to stall before reaching us. Outside of Monday evening, a relative rain-free week is in store for South Texas. The main concern in the long term is our increasing heat risk through the week. High temps settle into the low 90s along the coast to around 105-107 across the Brush Country by the middle of the week. These warm temps and increasing low level moisture will allow for heat indices to climb into the 110-114 range with a few locations exceeding 115 Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, we can expected a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts through much of the work week. There may be some slight relief towards the end of the work week as drier air works into the region as ridging builds in but likely won`t be enough to really make a difference. With a relatively quiet forecast in store for the next week, now is a great time to review your emergency preparedness plans. The 2024 Hurricane Season starts today and is expected to be an above normal season. Regardless of how active it is, we know that it will only take one storm to make this season a very bad season for the Middle Texas coast so prepare now. Don`t know how to prepare? We have you covered. Head over to weather.gov/crp/hurricaneguide to view our 2024 edition of the South Texas Hurricane Guide. There is tons of information in there to help you be better prepared for this hurricane season. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 MVFR/VFR ceilings spread across South Texas this morning with showers stretching from Del Rio into VCT. This activity will continue through the morning hours with thunderstorms possible later in the morning as heating increases. VFR conditions will prevail by early afternoon as southeasterly winds gust around 20 knots. A repeat of MVFR ceilings will develop again tonight across the area. Will keep a close eye late this afternoon through tonight for storm clusters north of the area moving southward, there is a low chance these storms make it into South Texas. However, if they do, they will pose a damaging wind threat followed by large hail. && .MARINE... Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow with periods of moderate onshore flow will prevail through the day. There is a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong southeasterly winds are expected as we head through the work week. Small Craft Advisory conditions may be possible at times each afternoon through Wednesday, generally over the southern waters and bays. Rain-free conditions are in store for the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 81 94 81 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 91 78 93 79 / 30 10 10 0 Laredo 101 79 102 80 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 96 79 98 80 / 20 10 0 0 Rockport 91 82 90 83 / 30 10 10 0 Cotulla 101 80 102 81 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 93 80 95 80 / 20 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 83 92 83 / 30 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM....TC AVIATION...EMF/94