Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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281 FXUS64 KCRP 290548 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1248 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been expanded to include Kleberg and Nueces Counties as well as the adjacent bays, waterways and coastal waters through 2 AM. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing, with very strong winds being the primary hazard (60 knots or higher). Storms are progged to continue on an eastward trajectory through the night, with a few storms building behind the main bands. A sharp pressure gradient has developed leading to gusty winds across the western zones in the wake of the stronger thunderstorms. Wind gusts to 35 knots are ongoing across Webb and LaSalle counties, and this trend is expected eastward later on. Although the severe threat may dwindle through the night, isolated thunderstorms are likely to linger through daybreak today. Drier conditions are expected this afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 938 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remain in effect through 2 AM for the Brush Country and Coastal Plains. As of writing, there is a severe warned storm pushing across the Rio Grande into Laredo. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats as this system moves east. In addition to the severe threat, rain rates from 2-4"/hr may cause some localized ponding in poor drainage areas. Soils should be able to handle the rainfall but we will continue to monitor for any flooding issues. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Key Messages: - Low to medium chance of strong to severe thunderstorms tonight - Cooler temperatures Wednesday, though Heat Advisories may still be necessary - Low chance of thunderstorms Wednesday An ongoing MCS continues to bear down on southeast Texas, pushing outflow boundaries toward and, eventually across, South Texas. Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop just north of Victoria County along one of these boundaries. Storms appear to be relatively weak at this point, but instability, high moisture, and steep lapse rates could contribute to more convective enhancement across our area. The greater chance for convection is likely later tonight as more storms develop over the west and move across the Brush Country/Coastal Plains. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat from thunderstorms, followed by large hail. While tornados seem unlikely, there is still a very small chance that we could have one occur. Showers and storms will continue into Wednesday, though severe weather is unlikely. Temperatures will cool for tomorrow, with heat index values ranging from 102-109 over most of the area. Those in the western Brush Country and over the southern inland Coastal Bend may yet experience heat index values of 110-112 Wednesday afternoon. Continue to practice heat safety! While it will be slightly cooler, frequent breaks, drinking lots of water, and wearing light, loose clothing will be important to keeping safe. &&MPH .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to extreme heat related impacts continue this week through early next week. A mid-level ridge positioned over Mexico extending over South Texas is expected to be the main weather influencer over the long-term period. Daily weather through the end of this week, expecting hot and muggy conditions to continue with low rain/storm chances around (20-30%) as several upper and mid-level disturbances move around the periphery of the high but mostly stay north of our CWA. Then for the remainder of the forecast, dry conditions are progged with silent PoP`s <15% chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low-level onshore flow, and a southwesterly/northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will advect drier air over the region will allow for warmer temperatures. As a result, moderate to extreme heat related impacts will continue despite a slight yet brief "cool-down" of surface temperatures. Afternoon highs will climb into the 90-105 degree range for the period. Heat indices will mainly hover between 105-110 into next week, heat indices early next week could hit at least 115 degrees but confidence is low at this time. Dewpoints mainly stay in the mid to upper 70s will make it feel like full blown summer in May. Additional Heat Advisories/Excessive Heat Warnings may be warranted and are more likely the beginning of next week. Regardless, the prolonged heat lessens the body`s ability to recover and becomes less tolerant to hot conditions. In addition to the heat, haze from fires down in Mexico continue to impact our area which can result in respiratory issues especially for sensitive groups. Expecting the haze to continue until the fires have been extinguished or if the southerly low-level flow changes directions (i.e. north). Please take pre-cautions to protect yourself when outdoors for prolonged periods. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are making their way across area terminals this morning in response to a passing mid level disturbance. This has lead to poor aviation conditions across sites with ceilings and visibilities falling to MVFR/IFR levels. The activity will continue on an eastward progression over the next several hours, but strong winds are developing behind it in response to a very strong pressure gradient. A few of the storms have become strong to severe, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect through 07Z. Even when the stronger storms clear out, isolated lightning remains possible through near daybreak today. Drier conditions and VFR levels are forecast to return past 12Z this morning. Breezy afternoon winds are also in the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through Wednesday night before strengthening to moderate to strong levels Thursday. There is a low to moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms today through Wednesday. A few storms could be strong to severe tonight. Mostly moderate conditions expected to persist into next week. However, moderate to strong levels may occur at times towards the end of this week. There`s a low to chance of up to 20-25% for showers and thunderstorms each day through the end of the week over the waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 93 80 92 / 20 20 10 10 Victoria 76 92 77 91 / 30 30 10 30 Laredo 78 102 79 102 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 77 96 79 97 / 20 20 10 10 Rockport 81 90 81 90 / 30 20 10 20 Cotulla 77 100 79 100 / 20 10 20 10 Kingsville 78 95 79 94 / 20 20 10 10 Navy Corpus 81 91 82 90 / 30 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS/77 LONG TERM....BF/80 AVIATION...ANM/88