101
FXUS64 KCRP 220719
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
219 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Key Messages:

- Continued Major to Extreme Heat Risk with Heat Index values
  nearing 114 today and Thursday.

High pressure will continue today through Thursday, with
high temperatures remaining in the 90s along the coast to around
105 across the Brush Country. Heat index values will reach 110-114
from the southern inland Coastal Bend across the Brush Country,
so a Heat Advisory has been issued for today from 1 pm to 7 pm. A
few locations could approach 115+, but this is not expected to be
widespread, so feel the Heat Advisory will be sufficient for
today. Expecting similar conditions for Thursday, so there is a
high chance that a Heat Advisory will be needed again.

Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will persist through Thursday.
Winds will be breezy in the afternoons, with gusts to around 25
mph. Hazy conditions will continue to be possible daily.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to extreme heat-related impacts can be expected through the
weekend and into early next week.

Synopsis: The overall pattern over south Texas looks like there will
be little change and little chance for rain, other than a few minor
shortwaves on a couple of days. The overall 500 mb pattern, once the
main ridge is by us today, will flatten out into a mostly zonal
pattern through next Monday, when another ridge builds into the
region.

Forecast Details: Thursday night and Friday are dry. High
temperatures look to be around 90 at the Coastal Bend, with the 100F
line from Kingsville to Beeville to Kenedy and the 105F temperature
line following SH-16. The temperature lines move a little more east,
each day, under the ridge and sunshine, so that 100 is possible in
CRP (15-30% across the city) on Memorial Day. Memorial Day
afternoon/evening it looks like a wave will move through with a sfc
trough(temperatures don`t fall enough for a "cold front") and could
kick off some showers and thunderstorms. By Tuesday morning the
showers and thunder are done, before trying to re-fire in Mexico
again, and possibly crossing the river. We`ll see how this works, as
anytime the models pick a cold front to move through this far out in
time, it tends to get the forecast wrong.

Heat Indices: Friday there are some locations that could exceed
115F, but in a small area out in the Brush Country. The heat indices
for Saturday through Memorial Day are in the Extreme range above
115F, and some locations possibly getting to 120F each of those
days. The locations are the southern part of the Coastal Bend
(roughly San Patricio county and south), and areas in the Brush
Country and the Rio Grande Plains. We go from Extreme on Memorial
Day to moderate on Tuesday. We`ll see if that happens. The problem
would be that if the rain happens, which also means clouds, it could
be "cooler", but it all depends on whether we see any convection
that day. The models have not handled convection 7 days out very
well. Wouldn`t be surprised if Tuesday and Wednesday are near
Monday`s heat or just a bit lower.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 923 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

MVFR conditions noted at eastern sites late tonight and this will
continue throughout the night with haze or light fog also
expected, mainly to MVFR levels. LRD and COT will also likely
have an MVFR CIG for a few hours toward morning. Winds will become
gusty once again during the day Wednesday with MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Expect periods of moderate to strong onshore flow each afternoon
through Memorial Day across our waters, especially the southern
bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  79  93  79 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          92  77  91  78 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           105  79 105  81 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             99  78  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          87  80  88  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          102  79 103  79 /  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        96  80  96  77 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       88  80  88  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ229-230-239>244.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....JSL/86
AVIATION...PH