522
FXUS64 KCRP 031814
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
114 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Key Messages:

-Major to extreme heat risk today
-Low chance of showers and storms this evening

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a shortwave moving across
the Southern Plains as a ridge weakens aloft. This weakness in the
ridge will allow for another shortwave to pass through within the
westerly flow aloft. Convection will fire across the Sierra Madre
late this afternoon and move towards the Rio Grande. The latest
CAMs have been fairly consistent with bringing a decaying cluster
of showers and storms across the Brush Country and Coastal Plains.
However, we`ve seen this convection fizzle out before reaching the
border. For now, have a slight chance mentioned during the late
afternoon and evening hours. In the wake of the shortwave, upper
level ridging begins to build in.

The main concern as we kick off the work week is our increasing
risk of heat-related impacts. High temps today will settle into
the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush
Country. We look to add on a couple of degrees tomorrow. These
warm temps and increasing low level moisture will lead to heat
indices in the 110-114 range today and the 110-118 range on
Tuesday. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 1 PM to 7 PM today with
another Advisory likely needed tomorrow. At this point, wouldn`t
be surprised to see an Excessive Heat Warning tomorrow, especially
for the Southern Coastal Bend.

Went ahead and extended the High Risk of Rip Currents through
Tuesday evening. A strong southeasterly flow, approaching new
moon, and elevated swells will be enough to maintain dangerous
swimming conditions along our coast line.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat continues

Mid to upper level ridging builds across the Southern
Plains through the middle of the week. This will maintain hot and
uncomfortable conditions through Friday. There is a medium chance
of heat indices exceeding 110 and a low to medium chance of
exceeding 115 daily through Thursday. By Friday, the ridge weakens
slightly as a trough digs across the Midwest. This will allow for
some slight relief as we head into the weekend. While temps
remain warm, some drier air will filter into the region which will
help keep heat indices in the 105-109 range over the course of
the weekend.

Rain chances look very minimal through much of the long term
forecast. However, if we want to find some sign of hope, you could
find a ripple in the H5 flow along the eastern periphery of the
ridge axis Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, we will be very close to
reaching convective temps so we could squeeze out a rogue shower
or storm but confidence is not very high in this outcome.

Lastly, minor coastal flooding will be possible at times of high
tide through the work week. A persistent strong southeasterly
flow, combined with the approaching new moon and elevated swells
will help drive water up our Gulf-facing beaches. Latest PETSS
guidance hints at waters nearing 2ft MSL both Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Looks like with the current pattern we will end up with VFR days
(CIGS and VSBYs) and MVFR nights. The sfc high is east along the
Atlantic coast, with low pressure in the lee of the Sierra Madre
is producing South to Southeast winds. Expect VFR CIGs and VSBYs
through about 00z/Tue, and then the haze will begin to thicken as
the moisture begins to pool in the lower levels overnight. The
haze would be expected to lower the VSBYs to around 4sm, and with
it, the CIGs would fall to MVFR. By the way that the last few days
have gone, the VSBY and CIGs won`t improve to VFR until 15z/Tues.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late
tonight as an upper level disturbance passes through. Otherwise,
a moderate to occasionally strong southeasterly flow will persist
through the middle of week. Winds will increase over the southern
bays and waters each afternoon, leading to potential Small Craft
Advisory conditions. There is increasing confidence that a SCA
will be needed today but not high enough to issue at this time.
Will have the dayshift monitor trends through the day. Onshore
flow gradually weakens through the day Wednesday, becoming weak to
moderate Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    82  94  81  96 /  20  10  10  10
Victoria          79  93  79  96 /  20   0  10  10
Laredo            80 106  80 106 /  20  10  10  10
Alice             79 100  79 101 /  20  10  10  10
Rockport          82  92  82  92 /  20   0  10  10
Cotulla           80 105  80 105 /  20  10  10  10
Kingsville        81  98  80 100 /  20  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       84  91  83  92 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239>243.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...JSL/86