868
FXUS64 KCRP 132121
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
421 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A few showers continue to drift westward mainly across portions of
the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads this afternoon. This
activity is expected to dwindle into the evening hours with the loss
of daytime heating. Much drier conditions will develop tonight into
Friday as ridging takes a hold aloft and with PWATs falling to below
normal levels (~1.5") for the season. Rain chances inland will be
below 10% tonight through Friday night, with some slight chances
(15-30%) persisting over the offshore waters owing to slightly
deeper moisture available.

In regards to the temperature forecast through tomorrow night, temps
will be similar to today areawide. Overnight lows will range from
the low to mid 70s inland to the low 80s along the coast. Highs
tomorrow will be in the low 90s along the coast to near 102 degrees
out west. A few spots may briefly reach Advisory criteria,
especially across portions of the Southern Coastal Bend. However, at
this time confidence is not high enough to grant a product issuance.
Will pass it on to the midnight shift for re-evaluation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat returns early next week

- Increasing moisture and rain chances next week

This weekend we will experience hot and humid conditions once again
as the ridge of high pressure transitions more to the east. Models
still are in agreement that an inverted trough will develop in the
southwestern Gulf bringing a disturbance that will more than likely
track into Mexico. Both of these factors will allow for deep
tropical moisture to surge into the area increasing PWATs to around
2.5+ by midweek. Rain chances start low this weekend and will
steadily increase early next week in the Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads. NHC has maintained a 40% chance for development at this
time over the next 7 days. This being said, we don`t anticipate any
landfalling impacts at this time though this will be monitored so
check back for future updates. With the forecast shaping up to
feature multiple days of rainfall, another threat to keep in mind
will be the potential for flooding. We are also monitoring the
potential for marine and coastal related impacts such as high rip
currents, coastal flooding, etc.

Heat stress conditions will be expected next week with the influx of
moisture in the area especially out west in the Brush Country.
However, with the increased rain chances temperatures will likely be
limited by midweek with highs around the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through
the cycle, with the only exception being a TEMPO MVFR for
visibility restrictions at ALI early Friday morning. A few showers
may impact the sites through this early evening. Otherwise,
expect light east to southeasterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow tonight will increase to more
moderate levels Monday night into Tuesday. With an area of
disturbed weather expected over the western Gulf, wave heights
are forecast to increase through next week. This could lead to
Small Craft Advisory conditions. The NHC has given this disturbance
a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days.
Low rain chances (20-30%) will exist tonight through the weekend
before increasing to medium to high chances early next week
(50-80%).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  96  78  94 /   0  10   0  20
Victoria          75  95  72  95 /   0  10   0  10
Laredo            79 102  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             75  98  74  98 /   0  10   0  20
Rockport          82  94  82  94 /   0  10   0  20
Cotulla           78 102  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  98  77  95 /   0  10   0  20
Navy Corpus       83  92  82  92 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...ANM/88