281
FXUS64 KCRP 131144
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
644 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A weak shortwave from 700-500mb along with PWATs near 2.0" will
allow for a low chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms today,
moving inland in the afternoon with the sea breeze. Highs will
range from around 90 along the coast to around 100 over the Rio
Grande Plains today and Friday. The lingering enhanced moisture
and light winds will allow for additional tropical funnel clouds
to develop today.

Tonight through Friday will be dominated by a ridge moving east
across the southern Great Plains. This will cause subsidence over
South Texas and PWATs will drop to slightly below normal at 1.5".
Therefore, only contain a silent and very low chance (10%) of
precipitation with the sea breeze in the afternoon Friday. The
decrease in moisture will greatly limit any chances of tropical
funnel clouds. Lows tonight will generally range from the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat returns early next week

- Increasing moisture and rain chances next week

If you are guessing that we will be hot and humid next week, you are
correct! An inverted trough will result in a surge of tropical
moisture into South Texas with PWATs approaching 2.5 inches. This
moisture, combined with near normal to slightly above normal
temperatures will lead to dangerous heat index values beginning
early next week.

This inverted trough and increased moisture will also lead to a low
to moderate chance of rain across the Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads early next week, with low chances spreading into the
Brush Country by midweek. NHC is keeping an eye on this disturbance
and continues to reference it in the 7-Day Outlook. The chances for
development have increase to medium (40%) chance over the next 7
days. Should this develop, this could further increase our rain
chances and increase our risks for coastal flooding and dangerous
rip currents. We continue to have low confidence that this will
actually impact our area, but we will continue to monitor it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with brief MVFR
vsby between 10-14Z in VCT/ALI. There is a low chance of rain
showers across the Coastal Plains today, but many showers are
dying as they move from the waters into the Coastal Bend. Have
VCSH mentioned at CRP and ALI today where model guidance is in
more agreement. Winds are light and variable this morning then
will shift southeasterly this afternoon, generally staying below
12 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Light to moderate winds will increase to more moderate onshore flow
Monday night into Tuesday. With an area of disturbed weather, wave
heights are forecast to increase through next week. This could lead
to Small Craft Advisory conditions. The NHC has given this
disturbance a medium chance of tropical development in the next 7
days. Low rain chances (20-30%) today through Friday will increase
to medium to high early next week (50-80%).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  78  94  78 /  20  10  10   0
Victoria          93  74  96  72 /  20   0  10   0
Laredo           102  78 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             97  75  98  74 /  20   0  10   0
Rockport          92  81  93  81 /  20  10  10   0
Cotulla          101  78 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        97  77  96  75 /  20  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       91  82  91  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...EMF/94