Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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124 FXUS61 KCTP 252339 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 739 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A shortwave passing north of the region will push a weak cold front through the state Saturday night. Low pressure will then track west of Pennsylvania Sunday night into Memorial Day, with the trailing cold/occluded front coming through Monday evening. An upper level trough will build into the region for the remaining portion of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Storms continue to drift east and remain below severe thresholds. Torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds remains possible this evening as storms battle weak deep layer shear but tap into 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The The flooding threat appears to have ended now that storms are generally oriented perpendicular to the mean wind. Rain and storms should exit east of the area (Lancaster & Schuylkill County) by midnight or shortly thereafter. After showers exit the region overnight, drier air will move in as a cold front pushes across. The front will likely be behind the forcing and not make more than an isold SHRA or two as it passes. Have kept PoPs below mentionable for the second half of the night. The clearing and rain today will likely lead to fog forming over a good portion of the CWA tonight. Dewpoints don`t dip much at all. Mins of 60-65F in the SE half and 55-60F in the NW half are a little milder than normal. Not much wind at all in the morning, so it may take 2-3hrs after sunrise before all the fog goes away. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... As the fog lifts on Sunday, another warm day is expected with highs surging into the upper 70s to middle 80s and ample sunshine. The front that sweeps through tonight will turn around and lift northward again Sunday afternoon and usher in more moisture Sunday night. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the southern tier Sunday afternoon south of the front where MLCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg. Although instability is rather meager, slow storm motions could result in some localized flooding in the afternoon and overnight, as reflected in the MRGL excessive rainfall outlook from WPC. By Sunday night, a seasonably strong surface low will move northeast across the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold/occluded front likely coming through Central PA Monday night. Falling heights/upper level diffluence ahead of the associated upper trough, combined with surging pwats along the attendant low level jet, should result in numerous showers/tsra late Sunday night through Memorial Day. Ensemble median rainfall during this time period is 0.50-1.00 inches, representing the most likely areal averages. However, embedded tsra should result in locally heavier amounts and potentially an isolated flood threat. Latest guidance indicates the threat for severe weather on Monday is worthy of monitoring, especially given that it will occur on Memorial Day and many outdoor activities/festivals are planned across the Commonwealth. The Storm Prediction Center has placed south central PA (areas south/east of I/99 & I-80) in a Slight Risk for severe weather. An elevated mixed layer is progged to advect into the region on Monday over top of a northward advancing warm sector. The result will be MLCAPE likely in excess of 2000 J/kg for some portion of southern PA (perhaps as far north as I-80) along with strong mid level flow and deep layer shear. Model soundings and hodographs (from the NAM in particular) are supportive of discrete cells with all hazards possible, including a tornado or two. In addition to the threat for damaging winds, hail, and a tornado or two, heavy rain/flash flooding is possible on Monday. Anomalous PWATs (>97th percentile) will provide ample moisture in a convective environment supportive of training storms and perhaps multiple rounds of convection. Ensemble mean rainfall amounts are generally 0.75" to 1.5" from Sunday night through Monday night with the majority falling between 8AM and 8PM on Monday. WPC has drawn a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall in eastern PA extending from Harrisburg northeast into the Poconos. In this area they mention the potential for up to 2.5" of rain in an hour and rainfall totals of up to 5" in areas that receive multiple rounds of showers. There remains some uncertainty with the northward extent of the warm sector, location of heaviest rain, and mode of storms on Monday. As forecast details come into focus, the most important takeaway is that those with outdoor plans on Monday should continue to monitor the forecast and make contingency plans for moving activities indoors as conditions warrant. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Medium range guidance all points to a period of cool weather later next week, as a deep upper level trough pivots southeast from the Grt Lks. The cold temps aloft should support a daily chance of diurnally-driven showers, with the highest POPs across the elevated heat source of the Allegheny Plateau. The best chance of showers and isolated tsra overall should come with the passage of a strong shortwave Wednesday. Both the GEFS and EPS signal drier and warmer weather late next week, as the upper trough shifts east of PA. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Scattered showers and storms will continue to impact the Susq Valley (IPT, MDT, LNS) before pulling east of the region late this evening. Elsewhere, predominantly VFR conds are expected through late evening. Overnight into Sunday morning, confidence remains high (60-80%) that IFR conds in lower ceilings and/or fog will develop over much of central PA. LAMP guidance has backed off a bit on fog development across the Lower Susq Valley, but the HREF is holding onto a 50-70% chc of IFR conds there overnight. Restrictive conditions are expected to improve by mid to late morning on Sunday, with VFR conds returning by ~14z in most spots. Outside of any thunderstorms this evening, surface winds look fairly light through the TAF period (generally 5 kt or less). Outlook... Monday... Persistent restrictions are expected in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Tue-Wed...Brief restrictions are possible in scattered showers, but much of the time should be VFR. Thu...Predominantly VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Banghoff SHORT TERM...Banghoff LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Banghoff AVIATION...Evanego