079
FXUS61 KCTP 021024
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
624 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A southwesterly flow of increasingly moist air ahead of
weak low pressure over the Great Lakes region will bring
the likelihood of showers today across the Western Mountains
of the state with scattered mid to late afternoon showers
across the Central Mountains and Susquehanna Valley.

It will turn warmer with moderate humidity Monday and Tuesday
along with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the
afternoon and evening.

A slow moving cold front will cross the region during the
middle of the week, then an upper level trough will build over
the region late week into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Variable amounts of mainly high clouds clouds were spread across
the state early this Sunday morning.

Most of the lighter radar returns over SW PA weren`t reaching
the ground as rain due to a deep dry layer as PWAT values across
the CWA range from just under 0.5 of an inch to about 0.8 of an
inch over the Laurel Highlands.

Clouds will gradually thicken up and lower to under 8 KFT AGL
across the Western Mtns late this morning, across the Central
Mtns early this afternoon and late in the afternoon/early this
evening east of the Susq Valley. PWATS during this time will
climb to between 1.25 and 1.5 inches.

Very little LLVL convergence is present within the warm sector
spread across our region, nor is there any significant larger
scale deep layer forcing beneath the favorable quads of a jet.

So, HREF progression and amount of QPF from some showers today
looks like the route to travel with 12 hour amounts ending at
00Z or 06Z Monday predominantly under 0.10 of an inch. some very
spotty 0.20 amounts are possible across Central and Western PA.

Min temps this morning were contained within an 8 deg range
across the bulk of the CWA, and ranged through the low and mid
50s with a few upper 40s seen over the Northern Mtns.

MU CAPE off the HREF is mainly under 250 J/KG later today and
tonight, however, 925-850 mb based LIs are about -1C over
Southern PA from 22Z today to 05Z Sunday. So a rumble of thunder
can`t be ruled out from isolated/embedded low-topped TSRA.

High temps this afternoon (before any -SHRA move in from the
west) will vary from the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher
terrain of Northern and Western PA. to around 80 in the
Southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A very weak cold frontal boundary will push south across the
state early in the period before washing out as it nears the
Mason/Dixon line on Monday.

Building upper level ridge to 580dm early next week should
favor lower POPs Mon-Tue. However, the airmass will be trending
warmer and more humid with just a bubble of weak sfc high
pressure drifting from Lake Ontario on Monday to the New England
Coast by early Tuesday. As a result, we can`t rule out spotty
diurnally driven convection.

High temps both Monday and Tuesday will range from the mid 70s
across the highest elevations of the North and West to the low-
mid 80s in the Southern Valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of a deepening upper
level trough over the Grt Lks should result in showery weather
Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface, latest medium range
guidance shows a surface high parked along the New England
coast, which will likely keep Central and Eastern PA relatively
stable, with a limited risk of severe weather. The most
concentrated showers and possible tsra should come with the
passage of the low level jet just ahead of the cold/occluded
front passage Wed PM into early Thursday. Ensemble plumes
suggest most likely areal average rainfall Wed-Thu is around
a half inch.

Latest GEFS and EPS indicate drier weather Friday/Saturday, as
the low level jet/plume of highest pwats shift east of PA with
the exiting cold/occluded front. However, scattered, diurnally-
driven showers appear probable, especially over the NW Mtns,
associated with the deep upper trough/closed low parked over the
Grt Lks.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid and high clouds over central PA at sunrise resulted in
a really nice sunrise here at the office.

Anyway, a weak low pressure system tracking northeast across
the lower Great Lakes area today. Clouds will continue to
increase and thicken today. Some showers will be possible by
early afternoon across far western areas. Far southeastern
areas may not see much if any rain late today.

Some fog and lower CIGS will be possible late, mainly across
the west.

Outlook...

Mon...Patchy AM fog, slight chance of PM t-storms.

Tue-Thu...SHRA and TSRA at times with restrictions possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Prelim May and Spring 2024 Temperature & Precipitation Rankings

Harrisburg: T12th warmest; 76th driest May
 T3rd warmest; 33rd wettest Spring

Williamsport: 9th warmest; 22nd wettest May
4th warmest; 11th wettest Spring

Altoona: 9th warmest; 13th wettest May
2nd warmest; 3rd wettest Spring

Bradford: 4th warmest; 36th driest May
Warmest; 21st wettest Spring

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/NPB
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Steinbugl