998
ACUS48 KWNS 020853
SWOD48
SPC AC 020852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba early D4/Wednesday before a shortwave trough
moves quickly southeastward through its base and the cyclone shifts
into the Upper Great Lakes region. Only slow eastward progression of
this cyclone from the Great Lakes into the Northeast is anticipated
on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. A cold front associated with this
system will likely push eastward across the OH and TN Valleys on
D4/Wednesday, with another frontal surge possible across these areas
on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of these fronts,
although uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as buoyancy
limits predictability.

Farther southwest, upper ridging is expected to build over the
western CONUS on D4/Wednesday through D6/Friday, with northwesterly
flow persisting across the Plains. Low-level moisture will be
limited across the central Plains on D4/Wednesday but some moisture
return is possible D5/Friday, which could promote thunderstorm
development. Uncertainty regarding this moisture return and
resultant buoyancy results in low forecast confidence.

Upper pattern predicted for the medium-range guidance diverges
notably after D5/Friday, although none of the guidance predicts any
substantial shortwave troughs. As a result, the severe potential
each day will likely depend strongly on mesoscale factors, which are
difficult to forecast at this range.

..Mosier.. 06/02/2024