846
FXUS63 KDDC 131518
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1018 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A hot day across southwest Kansas with air temperatures in the
  100-104 range. Heat index values will be in advisory range
  (105 and greater) mainly for areas along and east of highway
  183.

- Severe risk this afternoon for mainly gusty downburst winds in
  excess of 60 mph and can`t rule out an isolated gust over 75
  mph.

- Severe risk on Friday mainly in the evening and early
  overnight hours with a complex of storms exiting eastern
  Colorado.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

06z observations and upper air analysis has a large 5950 dm high
centered over central New Mexico with a 500 mb shortwave moving
through northwest and north central Kansas. This wave is mainly
providing some mid and upper level clouds. At the surface a
trough extends from a 1008 mb surface low in southeast Colorado
to central Nebraska.

For today we are expecting to reach the warmest high
temperatures so far this season. Mainly sunny skies combined
with southwest winds helping to mix out some of the lower level
moisture and an approaching cold front which will help to
compress the air in the boundary layer should be the recipe for
highs reaching into the low 100s CWA wide. The highest dewpoints
(>65 F) should be mainly along and east of highway 183 as the
mixing doesn`t really come until late afternoon and with that
heat index values could reach into the 105-107 range. I kept the
advisory from the previous forecast as is which will be Stafford
through Barber county however areas from La Crosse to Coldwater
could see a brief window of 105 HI.

Later this afternoon and through the early evening a slow moving
cold front will move into north central and northwest Kansas.
With mid level temperatures in the 16-18 (C) range we will need
highs to get over 100 in order to reach convective temperatures.
CAM models are in good agreement of initiation of storms along
the cold front around the K-96 corridor in the 3-4 PM time
frame. These storms will have most of the CAPE in the mid and
upper levels and with inverted V soundings and high DCAPE values
(HRRR has as high as 1900 J/kg) in the late afternoon these
storms will have downburst wind threats. As the storms move into
the area of more robust moisture from Coldwater to St. John we
could get some wind gusts in excess of 75 mph. Hail threat will
be greatest with the initial development of discrete storms but
the storm mode should quickly turn linear as storms line up
along the cold front. The storm activity for the most part
should be over with by around 10 PM and we will be left with
mainly quiet conditions the rest of the night.

Friday will be another warm day however not as warm as Thursday.
With winds more out of the east to southeast direction and 850
mb temps slightly cooler we should have higher surface moisture
which will be the heating of the air a little less efficient.
That said we should still see highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Upper level winds will be out of the southwest and by late
afternoon a shortwave will move into southeast Colorado. We
should see a line of storms grow upscale from north central New
Mexico through northwest Kansas and quickly move northeast. The
majority of the severe weather should be concentrated in
northwest Kansas with a strong wind threat but our northwest
zones from Syracuse to Hays will have the higher probabilities
of seeing severe weather.

Chances of storms and the return of the heat will headline the
long term outlook.

Saturday GEFS and Euro ensembles have a mid level shortwave that
will be crossing the central plains and with slightly cooler mid
level temperatures (10-12 C at 700 mb) we should have an
environment that would favor thunderstorm development by the
late afternoon hours.

Sunday with southwest flow aloft we should see the return of 100
degree heat especially along the Colorado border with Euro and
GEFS probabilities of 60% of these areas reaching 100 degrees.
Long term models also have a stout shortwave moving from central
Colorado through northwest Kansas. A few isolated storms are
possible along the I-70 corridor.

For the first half of the next workweek ensembles have a
longwave trough that slowly moves through the western CONUS
which will keep our airflow in the central and southern plains
mainly out of the southwest. This will allow the hotter air in
the desert southwest to expand into our region and highs should
be in the mid to upper 90s for Monday and Tuesday and then
possibly a little cool down by the middle of next week with the
passage of a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 511 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

In general we should have VFR flight category and winds 10-15
kts for all terminals during the time period. Between 20Z-01Z a
cold front will move across southwest Kansas which will switch
the winds to the northeast and also be the focal point for
thunderstorm development. VCTS is possible for all terminals
however GCK, DDC, and LBL will have the highest probability
(20-40%) of storms between 21-01Z and these storms could
contain downdrafts that could reach in excess of 50 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro