094
FXUS63 KDDC 121721
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Thursday with
  afternoon highs up around 100F.

- There is a 40-60% chance for thunderstorms late Friday
  afternoon into Friday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Tranquil conditions are forecast today into tonight as the SREF
indicates ridging aloft building slowly northeast across the Desert
Southwest into the Western High Plains. Despite ample moisture return
into the region, an extremely weak flow aloft and subsidence associated
with the approaching trough axis will hinder precip chances through
the period. Prevailing southerlies will further pull warmer air into
the area with H85 temperatures pushing up above 25C in central Kansas
to near 30C near the Colorado border. The latest HREF shows a widespread
100% probability of temperatures exceeding 90F this afternoon with
a 80-90% probability of highs topping 95F in extreme southwest Kansas.
For tonight, look for lows mainly in the 60s(F) with the HREF painting
an 80-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 70F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Minimal isolated thunderstorm chances (20%) are forecast for portions
of western Kansas late Thursday as medium range ensembles indicate
an upper level shortwave trough cresting a ridge axis in the Colorado
Rockies before dipping southeast through the Western High Plains,
interacting with a projected near-stalled frontal boundary generally
bisecting western Kansas. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient
instability present will lead to potential diurnally driven thunderstorm
development in vicinity of the frontal boundary late Thursday afternoon
into Thursday evening. However, the latest NBM points to only a 10-20%
probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding a tenth of an inch by early Friday
morning.

More significant thunderstorm chances (40-60%) can be expected late
Friday as an upper level shortwave trough is still projected to lift
northeast through the Desert Southwest into the Southern Rockies.
Pooling moisture ahead of a deepening lee side trough will push surface
dewpoints well up into the 60s(F), providing ample instability.
Thunderstorm development is expected late Friday afternoon across
the high plains of southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico as H5
vort maxima eject out of the approaching trough axis within an
intensifying southwest flow aloft, then spreading into southwest
Kansas Friday evening. The HREF supports more significant chances
for rainfall with a 30-40% probability for 12-hr QPF topping one-
quarter inch across much of southwest Kansas by early Saturday
morning.

Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected Thursday as prevailing
low level southerlies reinforce a warming air mass across the high
plains, pushing H85 temperatures into the upper 20s(C) in central
Kansas to a little above 30C in extreme southwest Kansas. The NBM
paints a 70-80% probability of afternoon highs climbing above 95F in
west central and central Kansas with a 70-80% probability of
temperatures nudging above 100F in extreme southwest Kansas. More
seasonal temperatures return by Saturday with increased cloud cover
and expected shower/thunderstorm development. This is supported by
the NBM indicating only a 50-70% probability of highs exceeding 90F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Gusty southwest winds at around 20 knots this Wednesday
afternoon will fall back into the 10 to 15 knot range by sunset
(between 00z and 03z Friday) as the boundary layer winds
decouples. BUFR soundings indicating limited moisture will be
present over western Kansas over the next 24 hours so VFR
conditions can be expected.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert