758
FXUS63 KDDC 081522
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1022 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A large complex of thunderstorms is expected to cross
  Southwest Kansas Saturday night, with damaging winds and heavy
  rainfall the primary risks. The highest risk of damaging wind
  is expected to focus along and north of US 50.

- Low clouds and much cooler Sunday.

- A rapid warming trend is expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Clouds will play a role in limiting or not how warm the
temperatures get afternoon. There is about a 5-6 deg F
difference between the 25th and 75th percentile for afternoon
highs a t any given location, (88 to 93 at Garden, 83 to 88 at
Hays and 94 to 100 degrees at Liberal for examples). Light north
winds I the morning will veer as warm advection develops to a
more easterly trajectory, aiding in spreading higher low 60s dew
points back westward to around Syracuse to Liberal.

The highest confidence severe and excessive rainfall event
looks poised to develop late this afternoon and evening as many
cams/hi-resolution model solutions have forecast an MCS for the
area. An are of shortwave vorticity at 500 mb is noted near
Great Salt Lake  and forecast by most models to lift advance
downstream to northeast Colorado kicking off convection in the
upslope deeply mixed high terrain environment in the afternoon.
Diurnal warming in the west and increasing surface dew points on
easterly upslope surface winds are leading to HREF mean Most
Unstable CAPE values in the 2000-2500 J/kg over a broad area
west of the highway 283 corridor. A few of the HREF cams members
were in great agreement of and MCS being driven from northeast
Colorado into west central Kansas between around 5 pm and 8 pm
CDT. Severe winds are the top risk while and hail also a threat.
Heavy rainfall may lead to some areas of flash flooding as the
HREF probability matches means paint an area of 1.5 to 2.5
rainfalls with a limited higher area to about 4 inches north of
the highway 400 corridor, in the 6 hour period ending at 1 am
CDT. The high res ensemble mean shows an an uptick to PWAT
values between 1.2 and 1.4 inches before the progressive MCS
moves through, meaning high rainfall rates can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Sunday starts a return to a southerly surface flow will likely
result in more sun and a general northerly shift in the axis of
60s dew points at the surface, with virtually no upper jet in
the immediate region. Any convection in this period would be
most favored farther south in the richer surface moisture of the
red river valley and anchored closer to a segment of the split
flow westerlies across central Texas. Temperatures resume the
summer-like 90s by midweek. The warmest day of the week is
Thursday where the NBM if forecasting widespread upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Good flying weather will continue through 00z Sun, with VFR
persisting, a mix of mid and high clouds, and NE winds averaging
10-15 kts. High confidence of a large thunderstorm complex
impacting the airports overnight. Using 12z ARW as a guide,
included convective TEMPO groups in the TAFs for GCK/DDC/HYS
during the 03-06z Sun timeframe. Primary risk will be outflow
winds in excess of 50 kts with the strongest storms. Activity
may remain north of LBL, so only included a VCTS/CB mention for
now. After the MCS exits, all models show widespread IFR/LIFR
stratus at all airports by 12z Sun, and this trend was accepted
in this TAF issuance. Stratus may hold much of Sunday before
VFR returns.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner