Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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758 FXUS63 KDDC 081522 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1022 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...Updated Aviation/Key Messages... .KEY MESSAGES... - A large complex of thunderstorms is expected to cross Southwest Kansas Saturday night, with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the primary risks. The highest risk of damaging wind is expected to focus along and north of US 50. - Low clouds and much cooler Sunday. - A rapid warming trend is expected next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Clouds will play a role in limiting or not how warm the temperatures get afternoon. There is about a 5-6 deg F difference between the 25th and 75th percentile for afternoon highs a t any given location, (88 to 93 at Garden, 83 to 88 at Hays and 94 to 100 degrees at Liberal for examples). Light north winds I the morning will veer as warm advection develops to a more easterly trajectory, aiding in spreading higher low 60s dew points back westward to around Syracuse to Liberal. The highest confidence severe and excessive rainfall event looks poised to develop late this afternoon and evening as many cams/hi-resolution model solutions have forecast an MCS for the area. An are of shortwave vorticity at 500 mb is noted near Great Salt Lake and forecast by most models to lift advance downstream to northeast Colorado kicking off convection in the upslope deeply mixed high terrain environment in the afternoon. Diurnal warming in the west and increasing surface dew points on easterly upslope surface winds are leading to HREF mean Most Unstable CAPE values in the 2000-2500 J/kg over a broad area west of the highway 283 corridor. A few of the HREF cams members were in great agreement of and MCS being driven from northeast Colorado into west central Kansas between around 5 pm and 8 pm CDT. Severe winds are the top risk while and hail also a threat. Heavy rainfall may lead to some areas of flash flooding as the HREF probability matches means paint an area of 1.5 to 2.5 rainfalls with a limited higher area to about 4 inches north of the highway 400 corridor, in the 6 hour period ending at 1 am CDT. The high res ensemble mean shows an an uptick to PWAT values between 1.2 and 1.4 inches before the progressive MCS moves through, meaning high rainfall rates can be expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Sunday starts a return to a southerly surface flow will likely result in more sun and a general northerly shift in the axis of 60s dew points at the surface, with virtually no upper jet in the immediate region. Any convection in this period would be most favored farther south in the richer surface moisture of the red river valley and anchored closer to a segment of the split flow westerlies across central Texas. Temperatures resume the summer-like 90s by midweek. The warmest day of the week is Thursday where the NBM if forecasting widespread upper 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Good flying weather will continue through 00z Sun, with VFR persisting, a mix of mid and high clouds, and NE winds averaging 10-15 kts. High confidence of a large thunderstorm complex impacting the airports overnight. Using 12z ARW as a guide, included convective TEMPO groups in the TAFs for GCK/DDC/HYS during the 03-06z Sun timeframe. Primary risk will be outflow winds in excess of 50 kts with the strongest storms. Activity may remain north of LBL, so only included a VCTS/CB mention for now. After the MCS exits, all models show widespread IFR/LIFR stratus at all airports by 12z Sun, and this trend was accepted in this TAF issuance. Stratus may hold much of Sunday before VFR returns. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Turner