Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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598 FXUS63 KDDC 060440 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1140 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Return to thunderstorm chances early Friday morning with some severe weather potential early in the day, mainly southern areas closer to the Oklahoma line. - Multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity likely from Friday morning through Sunday, however timing and track of individual thunderstorm system is still very uncertain. - Much of next week looks dry as high pressure builds in and much more stable air mass in place && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 This Short Term period (Tonight through Thursday Night) will be one of the quietest 36-hour periods we have seen in awhile with essentially no chance for rain or thunderstorms...until very late in this period. On the synoptic scale, water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showed a broad ridge of high pressure extending across much of the western CONUS extending east across the Central and Southern Plains. A formidable shortwave trough was moving southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region this afternoon which will bring another cold front south across western Kansas early Thursday morning. Winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph behind the front, particularly gusty once some insolation begins after sunrise tomorrow morning. The front will also drop surface dewpoints well down into the 40s keeping the entire forecast area stable to convective storms. Despite the strong northeast winds and low level cold advection, a full day`s worth of early-June direct insolation will still allow afternoon temperatures warm to the mid to upper 80s for highs. Tomorrow night, low level winds will veer around to the east- southeast and eventually southeast, becoming increasingly warm frontogenetic in the 06-12Z Friday time frame. Elevated thunderstorms, initiating within the 850-700mb warm frontogenetic zone, will be possible very early Friday morning, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty in placement of these early morning storms, so POPs will not be any higher than 30% on this forecast cycle for the early Friday morning period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The period from Friday through the weekend is still looking quite active with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity likely across the west central Great Plains. To kick off this active pattern will likely be some morning elevated convection as a warm front strengthens aloft (mainly 850-700mb layer). Rich Gulf of Mexico moisture will advance northward, above the surface, very early Friday morning yielding 2000-3500 J/kg MUCAPE. This would certainly be enough, along with 30-40 knots of vertical wind shear magnitude from 850-500mb, to support severe storms. The size of an early Friday morning MCS is uncertain and will have at least some impact on destabilization later in the day for surface-based convection. The broad west-northwest flow across the Rockies in the mid troposphere is an ideal setup for High Plains mesoscale convective system (MCS) development. Timing and placement of individual MCSs is far too uncertainty to predict over the weekend, however latest global model consensus is the best chance for the most favorable MCS activity across much of southwest/west central Kansas will be late Saturday or Saturday Night. As we head in to Sunday, signals from the latest global models (deterministic and ensemble systems) show an increasingly amplified upper level pattern with mean ridging across the Rockies and mean troughing across the eastern CONUS. This will push the effective polar front well to the south of southwest Kansas by late in the weekend in addition to the best thunderstorm chances to our south and west up against the higher terrain. Early next week looks quite stable to widespread convection across western Kansas. After that, models diverge significantly regarding the upper level pattern and resulting low level thermodynamic and kinematic fields. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A cold front will drop south across the area overnight. That will will shift the light south winds around to the east- northeast and increase speeds to around 15 knots for Thursday. The sky forecast remains clear, other than some models indications for VFR category stratus in the vicinity of HYS overnight. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Russell