055
FXUS63 KDDC 061652
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1152 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Return to thunderstorm chances early Friday morning with some
  severe weather potential early in the day, mainly southern
  areas closer to the Oklahoma line.

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity likely from Friday
  morning through Sunday, however timing and track of individual
  thunderstorm system is still very uncertain.

- Much of next week looks dry as high pressure builds in and
  much more stable air mass in place

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The latest surface analysis showed low 60 s dewpoints across
the area in all but the column of westernmost counties. A cold
front was straddled across northwest and north central Kansas
and approaching I-70 while 2 am temperatures across the Dodge
City forecast area were largely in the low 70s. Satellite
indicates clear sky across the region while a few narrow hints
of low clouds were trying to develop around Hays into central
Kansas along the cold front.

Todays forecast will be influenced by the front moving south
of the DDC area and becoming an afternoon focus for
thunderstorms in western Oklahoma and the TX panhandle.
Southwest Kansas will remain dry, albeit relatively humid across
the southern counties where temps this afternoon will push
toward 90 degrees with dew points near 60.

The stationary boundary is forecast to lift back north as a
warm front by the morning hours on Friday, resulting in low pops
(20%) returning after midnight to the western counties and east
of highway 283 in the afternoon hours Friday. Deep shear is
marginal, but 0-3km SRH increases to the over 200 m2/s2 ahead of
the dryline (most of the areas east of highway 23 and south of
K-96. That is coupled with a broad axis of 1750-2000 MUCAPE
between the highway 83 and 183 corridors. Categorical outlooks
from SPC increase the coverage north of I-70, which is the area
under more influence from the mid level jet and more prone to
MCS/organized severe activity. The rest of the DDC area is in
about a 5% risk areas of large hail, damaging wind. Excessive
rainfall risk Friday is focused generally east of a Garden City
to Dodge City and Ashland line.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Intermittent wet periods area still possible heading through
the weekend into the the early part of the week. The upper
pattern will still probably have the mid level jet just to our
north and models seemingly support MCS activity late Saturday.
Specifically, the ECMWF and GEFs 24 hour QPF multiple rind
trends have supported a wet solution with every ensemble mean so
far this week  favoring the northern half of the area. A
signal for even higher rain amounts with convection are showing
up farther south (LBL). Deterministic models suggest no
precipitation at all around Hays and best rain or severe chances
across the OK/KS line and the western counties.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A cold front resulted in northeast winds at the onset of this
TAF period, averaging 18 to 22 knots sustained at GCK, DDC, and
HYS. Winds will gradually decrease in speed through the
afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. By early evening,
easterly winds will range 7 to 10 knots, remaining at that speed
and direction much of the night. We expect overnight showers and
widely scattered thunderstorms to develop in the 09-14Z time
frame across portions of southwest Kansas, however the
probability of impact at specific terminals is still too low
(30% or less) to include in any of the TAFs for this issuance,
however following synoptic TAFs may be including mention of
thunder at any or all of LBL, GCK, DDC terminals if confidence
increases as we get closer to that time frame.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid